Running on Empty

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With the quagmire in Iraq still burning up our limited reserves in terms of lives, money and international prestige, it seems that Bush & Co. have already identified their next target for war, Iran. The problem is we're a little late in the game to do much, if anything, about it.

In all probability, Iran is a just few short months away from testing their own nuclear weapons.

If George W. Bush did win November's election, would Americans agree to wage a third war in the Middle East? Most probably, the answer is no, but who cares what the American people want anyway. After all, public sentiment hasn't seemed to bother the current administration in the past. International public opinion would certainly be even more suspicious, and potentially hostile, to the idea of yet another pre-emptive war, but the President seems to care even less about the opinions of the international community.

Ironically, the biggest deterrent in the decision to wage a full-scale invasion may come from the Pentagon itself. Reasoning that a catastrophic collapse in capability, in terms of manpower and military resources to successfully conduct the initial invasion and subsequent occupation, would be far too compromising, military planners may balk at the idea. Besides, they haven’t finished with Iraq, or Afghanistan yet.

Before the blundered mission in Iraq, Iran’s populace might have accepted US occupation and become reasonably adept in creating some sort of pro-western democracy. They've been holding democratic-style elections for a few years, and most citizens are eager for political representation. The problem is, our credibility to bring about any real reform has taken a nose-dive in recent months, especially among Muslim nations. Who can blame them for not trusting our true intentions.

Iran's leadership doesn't seem to fear military reprisal either. Last week, Iran made it clear to the EU that nuclear capability would be achieved within the next few months, and with a UN Security Council vote condemning their militarism approaching, Iran stands defiant. Their intentions are clear, and no one seems able to do anything about it. Obviously, politics isn't the answer.

So, what options does the West have? One plausible idea would be to attempt something similar to the Israeli solution when Iraq was a few months away from having their own nuclear capability back in the late 80s: Conduct a strategic air-strike against vital nuclear targets. Again, there are problems with this option as well, but it may be the only real alternative we have left. If the US does attempt a small-scale surgical strike of this nature, there would certainly be considerable international backlash. There may even be the possibility of devastating contamination if the reactors, etc. are already operable.

If we fail to act, there is the strong possibility that fearing an inevitable attack, Israel would attempt to do this their own, without consulting anyone beforehand. If the US, UN or the EU fail to make any sort of progress in this area soon, I would bet that Israel would certainly take matters into their own hands. In all probability, they are already training for such a scenario right now. Even Ronald Reagan’s administration was left in the dark when the Israelis bombed Iraq. Considering how close our relationship was with Israel at that time, it seems very likely that the US would find out about such a scenario along with everyone else, afterwards.

Finally the price of full-scale retribution from North Korea, including an invasion of South Korea should Iran suffer from an attack, has to be a serious consideration. So, there is the possibility that even if the United States decides to do nothing about the problem of Iran’s nuclear proliferation, we could still suffer dire consequences.

This could certainly be one hot political potato in the weeks and months before the election, but most likely nothing will be done before November. Of course, when it comes to waging the War on Terror, Iran has always been more of a threat than Iraq. Remember, it was the US who supported Iraq's 10 year war with Iran by generously supplying them with weapons of mass destruction amongst other things.

To be certain, no matter who wins the fall elections, this problem will elicit considerable tension inside the White House for some time. This is the issue of international terrorism that our nation should have focused upon from the very beginning, and we place ourselves in certain jeopardy if we fail to address Iran and North Korea now.

Unfortunately, we are already running on empty.