Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Black Friday and the Black Plague

Tomorrow starts the beginning of the (official) 2008 Christmas holiday season, and seems to be setting in quickly for a long slow march towards the new year as weary consumers search for the beginning of something to look forward to.

Personally relieved at the prospect of fewer people on the roads and in the air this week as I head to Las Vegas for business (no rest for the wicked), the rat race is planning on spending it's hard earned money in a more frugal manner.

No doubt, the view from the passenger window as I look down over Chicago on my way west won't look much different than it always has - a mass of development and urban sprawl we call progress will still be immersed in it's daily activities unabated. The queues may be smaller up close, but from a comfortable distance there is still the marvel of the human condition ever moving forward towards it's individual and collective goals humming along underneath the setting sun.

After all there is always tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow. Someday, whether it's January 21st, or July 4th or some other day in our future, things will be better for me and you.

However next year may be full of more of the same as far as the economy goes, and in other news ...

Environmental scientists warn that the dangerous levels of CO2 (at 350 PPM) which sparked the last period of global warming has already arrived and are now pleading governments and anyone listening to try and reduce levels immediately. Certainly drastic steps are needed despite the fact that in creating a new environmentally friendly economy will need to utilize traditional means of production just to get there.

While world oil resources are most likely past peak supply levels, it's certainly reassuring at least for now that prices in the past month and the foreseeable future will remain low.

Now it seems there is already another highly destructive strain of bacterial infection is spreading through the world and has begun to take hold in the US and around the world via infected rats.

Unfortunately, this article (linked above) does not provide us with information about the likelihood of death and it's method of dispersal. So we can only hope that scientists will share more information with us as soon as it becomes known.

Still it seems our race is still strangely connected to the condition of the common rat no matter how far away you try to look at it.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Simply Off the Charts

Life these days seems to be taking even more disturbing turns with each passing hour, or two.

For instance, I was really shocked to read that Michael Jackson had to sell his Neverland Ranch last month. Even though it's been a long time since I've thought of the man as sane, something inside my psyche was dumbfounded with the thought of Michael having to give up something so valuable, at least to him.

And I guess he isn't the only one.

From the loss of innocent lives from famine, disease, lack of water, or war to the economy and environment it seems that we are all living in days where all statistics seem to be going off the charts.

Like a bad dream, to me, the thought of America shedding it's automotive industry through bankruptcy is something that can't possibly be happening. I mean, can it? Even if we didn't invent the automobile, we sure came close and it was these manufacturer's that provided real wealth, and a whole lot more, to this country for over 100 years. While smaller and emerging nations like South Korea and India jump into the automotive industry, more than 3 million Americans can't figure out how to save just one of the Big Three.

And from what I hear, everyone couldn't really care less. From lenders balking at customers who want to take out a loan to buy an American car to (mostly) Republicans who would rather just give it all to the largest banks, no one seems to care. Even the CEO of GM has said he would rather not accept a bailout from the Government and let the entire company fail than step down. This while he and his co-horts fly into Washington on chartered jets to ask for money.

Basically, our manufacturing base is for all purposes dead in the water and the life guard is busy oiling up the pretty babe with pearls tanning on the beach.

Now I can't remember how much we've given to Citi et. al. recently, but it certainly pains me to see that they've decided to pay us back by announcing a record downsizing of more than 70,000 people. To date, trillions have already been handed to our financial industry and all we get are more mergers and terminations. And lending hasn't recovered at all, especially while home prices continue to decline throughout the country leading me to think of this neat jingle ... Have a home, forget getting a loan!

Originally there was supposed to be a great bailout which would magically save us all, but after half of it has already been spent to little effect, now Paulson seems too afraid to take any more risk for fear of looking bad or something has decided not to do anything more until the new administration takes office about two months away. Simply incredible to think that he blames the problems he's having on the government taking too long to pass the legislation, but then when he does have it, would prefer to sit on half and just wait.

From imports, and exports piling up at our shipping terminals to the utter failure of our government to do anything of any real importance it's becoming quite clear to me that the IMF's new take on the economy not recovering until 2010 is probably overly optimistic.

While Bush & Co. are busy pouring over a record number of pardon requests, raking the environment by allowing for useless oil drilling in and around our most sacred national parks (like Utah's Arches National Park) and planning quaint little sleep-overs and dinner parties for guests, like a slew of other businesses and homes throughout America, the Big Three will be out on the streets by Christmas.

Lame duck session is right. Even if Obama is every bit the excellent President everyone wants him to be, it's hard to see what he or anyone will be able to do because the problems are too many and too far gone. Not to mention that fact that everyone is still too busy making out like chicken little over each and every appointment and suggestion that emanates from the transitional team, there is a very real possibility the lame duck session might continue for some time after January 20th.

What people are failing to see is that there is a very real possibility there won't be a recovery to come, and that realization is just off the charts.

So we've had a good run and in that time even produced some great hits, but like Michael we can't afford to live in our Neverland Ranch anymore.

Friday, November 14, 2008

Cities begin to cry for help

The wave of economic fear is quickly spreading to the Midwest as Chicago's Mayor Richard M. Daley sounded dire warnings that massive layoffs will occur in several of the cities largest corporations before the end of the year, and the beginning of next year as well.

Saying, "Each one [company] tells me what they're laying off, and they're going to double that next year. We're talking huge numbers of permanent layoffs for people in the economy. It's going to have a huge effect on all businesses."

With grim repercussions in shrinking the tax-base even further, it is now left up to the final solution of raiding lock-box funds in order to prevent the city's looming bankruptcy.

While only the most prepared cities throughout the country have special funds tucked away, others have to take a direct approach like reducing services, cutting operating expenses, raising fees and taxes further stressing out consumers.

As home foreclosures continue unabated in October, like a dog caught between two bowls of dog food on either side of the kitchen, Fannie May and Freddie Mac continue to loose money like a sieve while being mandated to stop all future proceedings.

In fact, a judge has just prevented another mortgage underwriting company to do the same. Saying in essence, go take a huge financial loss and cease all home reposessions. Needless to say, the 50,000 homes it's no longer making money from will most likely force H & R Block to request Federal Assistance in the near future as have most companies in the US.

From banks large and small, investment firms, (now quickly becoming a thing of the past), the auto industry and Governors across the country, the 700 billion looks like a small drop in the pond compared to what is really needed to stop the bleeding.

Especially now that it looks like Treasury Chief, Hank Paulson, will be spending most of it just trying to keep our largest banks solvent by directly purchasing stock. This while over 44 million adults don't have health care, let alone a job or a home to come to at night.

The thing that scares me concerning Daley's comment yesterday is mention of the word, "permanent" which to me suggests a pretty long time. Now, with no other jobs or opportunity available the city will be placed in a quickly deteriorating situation of needing to provide more services with a continuing decline in resources.

Now, Chicago is a big city and has been witness to several difficulties in the past, so I would assume at some point it will recover again but unfortunately I wouldn't bet on too much assistance from the Federal Government as Daley noted, "[who] can just print the money."

Word on the international markets is that no one is buying US backed IOU's anymore which are what need to be sold in order to print the money. As our national debt spirals out of control, so goes the Federal Government's ability to pay it back. Right now all we can hope to do is pay interest. Can you imagine that monthly check?

Now that we really need help, it looks like the Fed has been out drinking pretty heavily and spent our money on other stuff.

Looks like we're due for a long hangover.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Rating the Economy

US May Lose Its 'AAA' Rating
Published on 11-11-2008

Source: CNBC

The United States may be on course to lose its 'AAA' rating due to the large amount of debt it has accumulated, according to Martin Hennecke, senior manager of private clients at Tyche.

"The U.S. might really have to look at a default on the bankruptcy reorganization of the present financial system" and the bankruptcy of the government is not out of the realm of possibility, Hennecke said.

"In the United States there is already a funding crisis, and they will have to sell a lot more bonds next year to fund the bailout packages that have already been signed off," Hennecke told CNBC.

In order to solve or stem the economic slowdown, Hennecke suggested the US would have to radically reduce spending across all sectors and recall all its troops from around the world.

As for a stimulus package, there is not much of an industry left to stimulate back into life, Hennecke said.

Saturday, November 08, 2008

10 Ways to be Happier

Gretchen Rubin's article posted in Yahoo's main page the other day list 10 suggestions for making yourself a happier person, and after a quick read through her comments I have to disagree.

Can one really be a happier person by faking happiness until sheer repetition of lying to yourself kicks into high gear? I doubt it. When selling insurance years ago, we took a course on becoming a good salesperson and one segment dealt with just that. Simply saying to yourself, "I'm a good salesperson", or "I'm happy", or "I would make a good vice-president" won't actually make it happen. Case in point, Sarah Palin.

How about another one of Gretchen's ideas of letting yourself go by deliberately doing something you know your bad at. Hmmm. Let's see, I hate myself so I will hurt my ego even more by deliberately messing something else up. Good idea.

Or how about buying happiness? Sure that works every time for me. Not. I'm sure if that were the case, everyone who was wealthy would be happy and obviously that's simply not true. Some of the richest people I know are miserable.

Finally her suggestion to simply shut up and stop nagging is a great way to end up in an institution in my book. Pent-up frustration always has a way of coming out one day, especially if your angst continues unabated.

Now, when I first read through this article my first reaction was that there might be a difference between men and women when it comes to happiness, but after careful thought, I decided that isn't the case either.

Here is my top ten list for finding happiness.

1. Get over yourself.

2. Understand you may be to blame, at least in part.

3. Find out exactly why you aren't happy.

4. Take a deep breath and count to ten.

5. Talk to a close friend who will stop and listen until your done.

6. Challenge yourself to speak up, or change the situation.

7. Look for professional help if the problem doesn't go away.

8. Slow down and smell the roses at least once a week.

9. Learn how to accept what life throws your way even if it's not always good.

10. Share a little love with someone you don't know.

Until the next post, I wish everyone joy and happiness!

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Gobama!

As I write this blog, John McCain is just making his conciliatory speech. So with this very convincing win, the young senator from Illinois has won a stunning victory in the race for the presidency.

When I started posting on this blog, it was primarily because of a huge feeling of political angst stemming from the rapid demise of our political system eight years ago.

Obama will certainly have his hands full from day one, but given the fact that both the houses will also be overwhelmingly democratic he has a real chance to provide our country with much needed and meaningful change.

Crowds flocking the streets in Chicago are truly massive and reflect the sense of awe many of us share during this historic moment in our history.

A note of interest that of the states going for McCain, an overwhelming majority of white people voted along racial lines which tells me that for some the civil war still isn't over.

Feelings of hatred can certainly run deep, but the power of unity and hope seems to have won this round.

Certainly it will be interesting to see how Obama and the democrats can overcome the huge racial and political divide that still separates our nation.

However, listening to McCain refer time and time again to the color of our next president's skin makes me wonder how well we will be able to bridge these differences.

One can only hope that there will soon be a time when we can look beyond skin color and see substance, stop judging people's sexual orientation and witness someone who desires love just like everyone else, and finally appreciate the power to heal and not to hurt.

The crowd in Arizona obviously feel betrayed by the election results and frequently booed and hissed in reference to the news. Making McCain stop and plead for his fervent supporters to refrain their hatred at least long enough for him to finish. After eight long years of political tyranny, it's time for the rest of us to learn how to loose gracefully.

Little Known Facts: Oxygen and CO2

Ever wondered about running out of oxygen? I have.

Whether diving in the deep blue, or scaling upwards to the highest elevations you may have felt the effects of diminishing levels of oxygen supply.

Now some interesting information comes out of the University of California, Script's Institute of Oceanography and the son of the famous scientist, Charles David Keeling, who developed the "Keeling Curve" which depicts the rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

According to studies conducted by Ralph Keeling, an atmospheric geochemist also from Scripps, has shown that there is a direct relationship between levels of oxygen and carbon dioxide in our atmosphere.

As carbon dioxide levels increase oxygen decreases. Fear not though as Ralph's numbers show that if current trends continue, we will still have about 50,000 years breathing time left!

However, this new information does show that there is more to global warming than just a simple rise in levels of carbon dioxide. The general assumption that the ocean and plants would simply continue to absorb CO2 and replace it with oxygen is no longer something to take for granted.

The Road Ahead

As I write this post millions of Americans across the country are about to wake up and begin their normal Tuesday routine with one very large difference, many if not most of us will exercise our constitutional right to vote.

And after all is said and done by the time we all head back to sleep we will know who our next president will be. Some of us will be sleeping pretty well, but others might need a little help.

But we can all take pride that each one of us who did decide to vote has played a part in the selection process that will enable our democracy to move forward in whatever direction we have chosen as a nation.

Of course people from all over the world will be anxiously awaiting the results as well. And they should for the last century our country has done more to change the world than any other.

Now it's our turn once again to show the world what we Americans are all about while we all hold our collective breath for the results.

But as recent history has shown it's not always about us and events in other countries can and do have serious consequences right here in the US.

So what can we look forward to in the next presidential cycle? One thing is for certain, change.

Let's take a look at some of the most important things that our next President, and other world leaders will have to tackle.

Both at home and abroad, the economic crisis will need to be solved. We know well from past experience that if this tricky problem isn't addressed quickly and decisively, it will fester like an in-law gone mad for a generation or more.

The world's diminishing energy resources have toyed with us several times before, but this time the question of oil and water will not go away, especially as the taps in the the Gulf begin to run dry, and the Colorado river as well as most others turns into a meaningless trickle.

Many scientists have already said that our impact on the environment has reached a tipping point, but during the next four years we should clearly see the handwriting on the wall as several vital ecosystems are lost altogether. Whether from pollution, exploitation, or climate change the human population will finally outstrip the ability of the planet to renew itself fast enough for our demands.

These two vital issues of diminishing resources and widespread environmental destruction will only wreak more havoc on the worlds poorest who will be left with very few options. The optimistic will seek refuge in an ever smaller number of wealthy nations thus contributing to the decline of those countries that try to provide for them. The pessimistic will try their best to stay and make the best from what they have, but eventually capitulate and die but not before raising even more children. The angry will be filled with rage and seek revenge.

So there you have it, but quite certainly even more bad news will be on the horizon. However unpredictable life and the next four years may be one thing is for sure, there is a sizable number of Americans who will not be able to come to terms with a mixed-race president.

Should Obama win the election, as predicted by every poll there is, I would only hope that those Americans who decided not to vote for him would accept the result no matter how hard it may be for them to understand. However, history has shown there are some who are not that forgiving, especially when it comes to the election of a populist president from Illinois.

There have already been a few misguided plots against Obama in recent weeks, but as the days move into months and the frustration of a few continues to fester, I would suspect there will be more to come and only one needs to be successful. There are those that refuse to think a Democrat is nothing more than a socialist. And then others will refuse to see beyond the color of his skin. Whatever the motivation may be, it's certainly clear that Obama may be both the most liked next-president and the most hated next-president in our history.

Should the unthinkable happen, I wouldn't expect the same response from the citizenry after Abraham Lincoln was assassinated. If such a thing were to occur this time, it would cause a civil war and not become the final chapter of one.

Now, I have to say that even the thought of this happening makes me feel sick. One can only hope and prey we are lucky enough to make it through these next four years without incident to the president, but I highly doubt we'll be that fortunate because what makes him so appealing to the majority of people is exactly what others fear the most.

Not a pleasant thought to end a post on, however looking out the window and seeing the sun rising once again I know it's time for me to head out. Rest assured I'll post more about my take on the future, politics and life in general soon.

Until then, I hope everyone will practice their right to vote and may each of us wish the best for both candidates and one another.