Tomorrow starts the beginning of the (official) 2008 Christmas holiday season, and seems to be setting in quickly for a long slow march towards the new year as weary consumers search for the beginning of something to look forward to.
Personally relieved at the prospect of fewer people on the roads and in the air this week as I head to Las Vegas for business (no rest for the wicked), the rat race is planning on spending it's hard earned money in a more frugal manner.
No doubt, the view from the passenger window as I look down over Chicago on my way west won't look much different than it always has - a mass of development and urban sprawl we call progress will still be immersed in it's daily activities unabated. The queues may be smaller up close, but from a comfortable distance there is still the marvel of the human condition ever moving forward towards it's individual and collective goals humming along underneath the setting sun.
After all there is always tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow. Someday, whether it's January 21st, or July 4th or some other day in our future, things will be better for me and you.
However next year may be full of more of the same as far as the economy goes, and in other news ...
Environmental scientists warn that the dangerous levels of CO2 (at 350 PPM) which sparked the last period of global warming has already arrived and are now pleading governments and anyone listening to try and reduce levels immediately. Certainly drastic steps are needed despite the fact that in creating a new environmentally friendly economy will need to utilize traditional means of production just to get there.
While world oil resources are most likely past peak supply levels, it's certainly reassuring at least for now that prices in the past month and the foreseeable future will remain low.
Now it seems there is already another highly destructive strain of bacterial infection is spreading through the world and has begun to take hold in the US and around the world via infected rats.
Unfortunately, this article (linked above) does not provide us with information about the likelihood of death and it's method of dispersal. So we can only hope that scientists will share more information with us as soon as it becomes known.
Still it seems our race is still strangely connected to the condition of the common rat no matter how far away you try to look at it.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Simply Off the Charts
Life these days seems to be taking even more disturbing turns with each passing hour, or two.
For instance, I was really shocked to read that Michael Jackson had to sell his Neverland Ranch last month. Even though it's been a long time since I've thought of the man as sane, something inside my psyche was dumbfounded with the thought of Michael having to give up something so valuable, at least to him.
And I guess he isn't the only one.
From the loss of innocent lives from famine, disease, lack of water, or war to the economy and environment it seems that we are all living in days where all statistics seem to be going off the charts.
Like a bad dream, to me, the thought of America shedding it's automotive industry through bankruptcy is something that can't possibly be happening. I mean, can it? Even if we didn't invent the automobile, we sure came close and it was these manufacturer's that provided real wealth, and a whole lot more, to this country for over 100 years. While smaller and emerging nations like South Korea and India jump into the automotive industry, more than 3 million Americans can't figure out how to save just one of the Big Three.
And from what I hear, everyone couldn't really care less. From lenders balking at customers who want to take out a loan to buy an American car to (mostly) Republicans who would rather just give it all to the largest banks, no one seems to care. Even the CEO of GM has said he would rather not accept a bailout from the Government and let the entire company fail than step down. This while he and his co-horts fly into Washington on chartered jets to ask for money.
Basically, our manufacturing base is for all purposes dead in the water and the life guard is busy oiling up the pretty babe with pearls tanning on the beach.
Now I can't remember how much we've given to Citi et. al. recently, but it certainly pains me to see that they've decided to pay us back by announcing a record downsizing of more than 70,000 people. To date, trillions have already been handed to our financial industry and all we get are more mergers and terminations. And lending hasn't recovered at all, especially while home prices continue to decline throughout the country leading me to think of this neat jingle ... Have a home, forget getting a loan!
Originally there was supposed to be a great bailout which would magically save us all, but after half of it has already been spent to little effect, now Paulson seems too afraid to take any more risk for fear of looking bad or something has decided not to do anything more until the new administration takes office about two months away. Simply incredible to think that he blames the problems he's having on the government taking too long to pass the legislation, but then when he does have it, would prefer to sit on half and just wait.
From imports, and exports piling up at our shipping terminals to the utter failure of our government to do anything of any real importance it's becoming quite clear to me that the IMF's new take on the economy not recovering until 2010 is probably overly optimistic.
While Bush & Co. are busy pouring over a record number of pardon requests, raking the environment by allowing for useless oil drilling in and around our most sacred national parks (like Utah's Arches National Park) and planning quaint little sleep-overs and dinner parties for guests, like a slew of other businesses and homes throughout America, the Big Three will be out on the streets by Christmas.
Lame duck session is right. Even if Obama is every bit the excellent President everyone wants him to be, it's hard to see what he or anyone will be able to do because the problems are too many and too far gone. Not to mention that fact that everyone is still too busy making out like chicken little over each and every appointment and suggestion that emanates from the transitional team, there is a very real possibility the lame duck session might continue for some time after January 20th.
What people are failing to see is that there is a very real possibility there won't be a recovery to come, and that realization is just off the charts.
So we've had a good run and in that time even produced some great hits, but like Michael we can't afford to live in our Neverland Ranch anymore.
For instance, I was really shocked to read that Michael Jackson had to sell his Neverland Ranch last month. Even though it's been a long time since I've thought of the man as sane, something inside my psyche was dumbfounded with the thought of Michael having to give up something so valuable, at least to him.
And I guess he isn't the only one.
From the loss of innocent lives from famine, disease, lack of water, or war to the economy and environment it seems that we are all living in days where all statistics seem to be going off the charts.
Like a bad dream, to me, the thought of America shedding it's automotive industry through bankruptcy is something that can't possibly be happening. I mean, can it? Even if we didn't invent the automobile, we sure came close and it was these manufacturer's that provided real wealth, and a whole lot more, to this country for over 100 years. While smaller and emerging nations like South Korea and India jump into the automotive industry, more than 3 million Americans can't figure out how to save just one of the Big Three.
And from what I hear, everyone couldn't really care less. From lenders balking at customers who want to take out a loan to buy an American car to (mostly) Republicans who would rather just give it all to the largest banks, no one seems to care. Even the CEO of GM has said he would rather not accept a bailout from the Government and let the entire company fail than step down. This while he and his co-horts fly into Washington on chartered jets to ask for money.
Basically, our manufacturing base is for all purposes dead in the water and the life guard is busy oiling up the pretty babe with pearls tanning on the beach.
Now I can't remember how much we've given to Citi et. al. recently, but it certainly pains me to see that they've decided to pay us back by announcing a record downsizing of more than 70,000 people. To date, trillions have already been handed to our financial industry and all we get are more mergers and terminations. And lending hasn't recovered at all, especially while home prices continue to decline throughout the country leading me to think of this neat jingle ... Have a home, forget getting a loan!
Originally there was supposed to be a great bailout which would magically save us all, but after half of it has already been spent to little effect, now Paulson seems too afraid to take any more risk for fear of looking bad or something has decided not to do anything more until the new administration takes office about two months away. Simply incredible to think that he blames the problems he's having on the government taking too long to pass the legislation, but then when he does have it, would prefer to sit on half and just wait.
From imports, and exports piling up at our shipping terminals to the utter failure of our government to do anything of any real importance it's becoming quite clear to me that the IMF's new take on the economy not recovering until 2010 is probably overly optimistic.
While Bush & Co. are busy pouring over a record number of pardon requests, raking the environment by allowing for useless oil drilling in and around our most sacred national parks (like Utah's Arches National Park) and planning quaint little sleep-overs and dinner parties for guests, like a slew of other businesses and homes throughout America, the Big Three will be out on the streets by Christmas.
Lame duck session is right. Even if Obama is every bit the excellent President everyone wants him to be, it's hard to see what he or anyone will be able to do because the problems are too many and too far gone. Not to mention that fact that everyone is still too busy making out like chicken little over each and every appointment and suggestion that emanates from the transitional team, there is a very real possibility the lame duck session might continue for some time after January 20th.
What people are failing to see is that there is a very real possibility there won't be a recovery to come, and that realization is just off the charts.
So we've had a good run and in that time even produced some great hits, but like Michael we can't afford to live in our Neverland Ranch anymore.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Cities begin to cry for help
The wave of economic fear is quickly spreading to the Midwest as Chicago's Mayor Richard M. Daley sounded dire warnings that massive layoffs will occur in several of the cities largest corporations before the end of the year, and the beginning of next year as well.
Saying, "Each one [company] tells me what they're laying off, and they're going to double that next year. We're talking huge numbers of permanent layoffs for people in the economy. It's going to have a huge effect on all businesses."
With grim repercussions in shrinking the tax-base even further, it is now left up to the final solution of raiding lock-box funds in order to prevent the city's looming bankruptcy.
While only the most prepared cities throughout the country have special funds tucked away, others have to take a direct approach like reducing services, cutting operating expenses, raising fees and taxes further stressing out consumers.
As home foreclosures continue unabated in October, like a dog caught between two bowls of dog food on either side of the kitchen, Fannie May and Freddie Mac continue to loose money like a sieve while being mandated to stop all future proceedings.
In fact, a judge has just prevented another mortgage underwriting company to do the same. Saying in essence, go take a huge financial loss and cease all home reposessions. Needless to say, the 50,000 homes it's no longer making money from will most likely force H & R Block to request Federal Assistance in the near future as have most companies in the US.
From banks large and small, investment firms, (now quickly becoming a thing of the past), the auto industry and Governors across the country, the 700 billion looks like a small drop in the pond compared to what is really needed to stop the bleeding.
Especially now that it looks like Treasury Chief, Hank Paulson, will be spending most of it just trying to keep our largest banks solvent by directly purchasing stock. This while over 44 million adults don't have health care, let alone a job or a home to come to at night.
The thing that scares me concerning Daley's comment yesterday is mention of the word, "permanent" which to me suggests a pretty long time. Now, with no other jobs or opportunity available the city will be placed in a quickly deteriorating situation of needing to provide more services with a continuing decline in resources.
Now, Chicago is a big city and has been witness to several difficulties in the past, so I would assume at some point it will recover again but unfortunately I wouldn't bet on too much assistance from the Federal Government as Daley noted, "[who] can just print the money."
Word on the international markets is that no one is buying US backed IOU's anymore which are what need to be sold in order to print the money. As our national debt spirals out of control, so goes the Federal Government's ability to pay it back. Right now all we can hope to do is pay interest. Can you imagine that monthly check?
Now that we really need help, it looks like the Fed has been out drinking pretty heavily and spent our money on other stuff.
Looks like we're due for a long hangover.
Saying, "Each one [company] tells me what they're laying off, and they're going to double that next year. We're talking huge numbers of permanent layoffs for people in the economy. It's going to have a huge effect on all businesses."
With grim repercussions in shrinking the tax-base even further, it is now left up to the final solution of raiding lock-box funds in order to prevent the city's looming bankruptcy.
While only the most prepared cities throughout the country have special funds tucked away, others have to take a direct approach like reducing services, cutting operating expenses, raising fees and taxes further stressing out consumers.
As home foreclosures continue unabated in October, like a dog caught between two bowls of dog food on either side of the kitchen, Fannie May and Freddie Mac continue to loose money like a sieve while being mandated to stop all future proceedings.
In fact, a judge has just prevented another mortgage underwriting company to do the same. Saying in essence, go take a huge financial loss and cease all home reposessions. Needless to say, the 50,000 homes it's no longer making money from will most likely force H & R Block to request Federal Assistance in the near future as have most companies in the US.
From banks large and small, investment firms, (now quickly becoming a thing of the past), the auto industry and Governors across the country, the 700 billion looks like a small drop in the pond compared to what is really needed to stop the bleeding.
Especially now that it looks like Treasury Chief, Hank Paulson, will be spending most of it just trying to keep our largest banks solvent by directly purchasing stock. This while over 44 million adults don't have health care, let alone a job or a home to come to at night.
The thing that scares me concerning Daley's comment yesterday is mention of the word, "permanent" which to me suggests a pretty long time. Now, with no other jobs or opportunity available the city will be placed in a quickly deteriorating situation of needing to provide more services with a continuing decline in resources.
Now, Chicago is a big city and has been witness to several difficulties in the past, so I would assume at some point it will recover again but unfortunately I wouldn't bet on too much assistance from the Federal Government as Daley noted, "[who] can just print the money."
Word on the international markets is that no one is buying US backed IOU's anymore which are what need to be sold in order to print the money. As our national debt spirals out of control, so goes the Federal Government's ability to pay it back. Right now all we can hope to do is pay interest. Can you imagine that monthly check?
Now that we really need help, it looks like the Fed has been out drinking pretty heavily and spent our money on other stuff.
Looks like we're due for a long hangover.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Rating the Economy
US May Lose Its 'AAA' Rating
Published on 11-11-2008
Source: CNBC
The United States may be on course to lose its 'AAA' rating due to the large amount of debt it has accumulated, according to Martin Hennecke, senior manager of private clients at Tyche.
"The U.S. might really have to look at a default on the bankruptcy reorganization of the present financial system" and the bankruptcy of the government is not out of the realm of possibility, Hennecke said.
"In the United States there is already a funding crisis, and they will have to sell a lot more bonds next year to fund the bailout packages that have already been signed off," Hennecke told CNBC.
In order to solve or stem the economic slowdown, Hennecke suggested the US would have to radically reduce spending across all sectors and recall all its troops from around the world.
As for a stimulus package, there is not much of an industry left to stimulate back into life, Hennecke said.
Published on 11-11-2008
Source: CNBC
The United States may be on course to lose its 'AAA' rating due to the large amount of debt it has accumulated, according to Martin Hennecke, senior manager of private clients at Tyche.
"The U.S. might really have to look at a default on the bankruptcy reorganization of the present financial system" and the bankruptcy of the government is not out of the realm of possibility, Hennecke said.
"In the United States there is already a funding crisis, and they will have to sell a lot more bonds next year to fund the bailout packages that have already been signed off," Hennecke told CNBC.
In order to solve or stem the economic slowdown, Hennecke suggested the US would have to radically reduce spending across all sectors and recall all its troops from around the world.
As for a stimulus package, there is not much of an industry left to stimulate back into life, Hennecke said.
Saturday, November 08, 2008
10 Ways to be Happier
Gretchen Rubin's article posted in Yahoo's main page the other day list 10 suggestions for making yourself a happier person, and after a quick read through her comments I have to disagree.
Can one really be a happier person by faking happiness until sheer repetition of lying to yourself kicks into high gear? I doubt it. When selling insurance years ago, we took a course on becoming a good salesperson and one segment dealt with just that. Simply saying to yourself, "I'm a good salesperson", or "I'm happy", or "I would make a good vice-president" won't actually make it happen. Case in point, Sarah Palin.
How about another one of Gretchen's ideas of letting yourself go by deliberately doing something you know your bad at. Hmmm. Let's see, I hate myself so I will hurt my ego even more by deliberately messing something else up. Good idea.
Or how about buying happiness? Sure that works every time for me. Not. I'm sure if that were the case, everyone who was wealthy would be happy and obviously that's simply not true. Some of the richest people I know are miserable.
Finally her suggestion to simply shut up and stop nagging is a great way to end up in an institution in my book. Pent-up frustration always has a way of coming out one day, especially if your angst continues unabated.
Now, when I first read through this article my first reaction was that there might be a difference between men and women when it comes to happiness, but after careful thought, I decided that isn't the case either.
Here is my top ten list for finding happiness.
1. Get over yourself.
2. Understand you may be to blame, at least in part.
3. Find out exactly why you aren't happy.
4. Take a deep breath and count to ten.
5. Talk to a close friend who will stop and listen until your done.
6. Challenge yourself to speak up, or change the situation.
7. Look for professional help if the problem doesn't go away.
8. Slow down and smell the roses at least once a week.
9. Learn how to accept what life throws your way even if it's not always good.
10. Share a little love with someone you don't know.
Until the next post, I wish everyone joy and happiness!
Can one really be a happier person by faking happiness until sheer repetition of lying to yourself kicks into high gear? I doubt it. When selling insurance years ago, we took a course on becoming a good salesperson and one segment dealt with just that. Simply saying to yourself, "I'm a good salesperson", or "I'm happy", or "I would make a good vice-president" won't actually make it happen. Case in point, Sarah Palin.
How about another one of Gretchen's ideas of letting yourself go by deliberately doing something you know your bad at. Hmmm. Let's see, I hate myself so I will hurt my ego even more by deliberately messing something else up. Good idea.
Or how about buying happiness? Sure that works every time for me. Not. I'm sure if that were the case, everyone who was wealthy would be happy and obviously that's simply not true. Some of the richest people I know are miserable.
Finally her suggestion to simply shut up and stop nagging is a great way to end up in an institution in my book. Pent-up frustration always has a way of coming out one day, especially if your angst continues unabated.
Now, when I first read through this article my first reaction was that there might be a difference between men and women when it comes to happiness, but after careful thought, I decided that isn't the case either.
Here is my top ten list for finding happiness.
1. Get over yourself.
2. Understand you may be to blame, at least in part.
3. Find out exactly why you aren't happy.
4. Take a deep breath and count to ten.
5. Talk to a close friend who will stop and listen until your done.
6. Challenge yourself to speak up, or change the situation.
7. Look for professional help if the problem doesn't go away.
8. Slow down and smell the roses at least once a week.
9. Learn how to accept what life throws your way even if it's not always good.
10. Share a little love with someone you don't know.
Until the next post, I wish everyone joy and happiness!
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Gobama!
As I write this blog, John McCain is just making his conciliatory speech. So with this very convincing win, the young senator from Illinois has won a stunning victory in the race for the presidency.
When I started posting on this blog, it was primarily because of a huge feeling of political angst stemming from the rapid demise of our political system eight years ago.
Obama will certainly have his hands full from day one, but given the fact that both the houses will also be overwhelmingly democratic he has a real chance to provide our country with much needed and meaningful change.
Crowds flocking the streets in Chicago are truly massive and reflect the sense of awe many of us share during this historic moment in our history.
A note of interest that of the states going for McCain, an overwhelming majority of white people voted along racial lines which tells me that for some the civil war still isn't over.
Feelings of hatred can certainly run deep, but the power of unity and hope seems to have won this round.
Certainly it will be interesting to see how Obama and the democrats can overcome the huge racial and political divide that still separates our nation.
However, listening to McCain refer time and time again to the color of our next president's skin makes me wonder how well we will be able to bridge these differences.
One can only hope that there will soon be a time when we can look beyond skin color and see substance, stop judging people's sexual orientation and witness someone who desires love just like everyone else, and finally appreciate the power to heal and not to hurt.
The crowd in Arizona obviously feel betrayed by the election results and frequently booed and hissed in reference to the news. Making McCain stop and plead for his fervent supporters to refrain their hatred at least long enough for him to finish. After eight long years of political tyranny, it's time for the rest of us to learn how to loose gracefully.
When I started posting on this blog, it was primarily because of a huge feeling of political angst stemming from the rapid demise of our political system eight years ago.
Obama will certainly have his hands full from day one, but given the fact that both the houses will also be overwhelmingly democratic he has a real chance to provide our country with much needed and meaningful change.
Crowds flocking the streets in Chicago are truly massive and reflect the sense of awe many of us share during this historic moment in our history.
A note of interest that of the states going for McCain, an overwhelming majority of white people voted along racial lines which tells me that for some the civil war still isn't over.
Feelings of hatred can certainly run deep, but the power of unity and hope seems to have won this round.
Certainly it will be interesting to see how Obama and the democrats can overcome the huge racial and political divide that still separates our nation.
However, listening to McCain refer time and time again to the color of our next president's skin makes me wonder how well we will be able to bridge these differences.
One can only hope that there will soon be a time when we can look beyond skin color and see substance, stop judging people's sexual orientation and witness someone who desires love just like everyone else, and finally appreciate the power to heal and not to hurt.
The crowd in Arizona obviously feel betrayed by the election results and frequently booed and hissed in reference to the news. Making McCain stop and plead for his fervent supporters to refrain their hatred at least long enough for him to finish. After eight long years of political tyranny, it's time for the rest of us to learn how to loose gracefully.
Little Known Facts: Oxygen and CO2
Ever wondered about running out of oxygen? I have.
Whether diving in the deep blue, or scaling upwards to the highest elevations you may have felt the effects of diminishing levels of oxygen supply.
Now some interesting information comes out of the University of California, Script's Institute of Oceanography and the son of the famous scientist, Charles David Keeling, who developed the "Keeling Curve" which depicts the rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
According to studies conducted by Ralph Keeling, an atmospheric geochemist also from Scripps, has shown that there is a direct relationship between levels of oxygen and carbon dioxide in our atmosphere.
As carbon dioxide levels increase oxygen decreases. Fear not though as Ralph's numbers show that if current trends continue, we will still have about 50,000 years breathing time left!
However, this new information does show that there is more to global warming than just a simple rise in levels of carbon dioxide. The general assumption that the ocean and plants would simply continue to absorb CO2 and replace it with oxygen is no longer something to take for granted.
Whether diving in the deep blue, or scaling upwards to the highest elevations you may have felt the effects of diminishing levels of oxygen supply.
Now some interesting information comes out of the University of California, Script's Institute of Oceanography and the son of the famous scientist, Charles David Keeling, who developed the "Keeling Curve" which depicts the rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
According to studies conducted by Ralph Keeling, an atmospheric geochemist also from Scripps, has shown that there is a direct relationship between levels of oxygen and carbon dioxide in our atmosphere.
As carbon dioxide levels increase oxygen decreases. Fear not though as Ralph's numbers show that if current trends continue, we will still have about 50,000 years breathing time left!
However, this new information does show that there is more to global warming than just a simple rise in levels of carbon dioxide. The general assumption that the ocean and plants would simply continue to absorb CO2 and replace it with oxygen is no longer something to take for granted.
The Road Ahead
As I write this post millions of Americans across the country are about to wake up and begin their normal Tuesday routine with one very large difference, many if not most of us will exercise our constitutional right to vote.
And after all is said and done by the time we all head back to sleep we will know who our next president will be. Some of us will be sleeping pretty well, but others might need a little help.
But we can all take pride that each one of us who did decide to vote has played a part in the selection process that will enable our democracy to move forward in whatever direction we have chosen as a nation.
Of course people from all over the world will be anxiously awaiting the results as well. And they should for the last century our country has done more to change the world than any other.
Now it's our turn once again to show the world what we Americans are all about while we all hold our collective breath for the results.
But as recent history has shown it's not always about us and events in other countries can and do have serious consequences right here in the US.
So what can we look forward to in the next presidential cycle? One thing is for certain, change.
Let's take a look at some of the most important things that our next President, and other world leaders will have to tackle.
Both at home and abroad, the economic crisis will need to be solved. We know well from past experience that if this tricky problem isn't addressed quickly and decisively, it will fester like an in-law gone mad for a generation or more.
The world's diminishing energy resources have toyed with us several times before, but this time the question of oil and water will not go away, especially as the taps in the the Gulf begin to run dry, and the Colorado river as well as most others turns into a meaningless trickle.
Many scientists have already said that our impact on the environment has reached a tipping point, but during the next four years we should clearly see the handwriting on the wall as several vital ecosystems are lost altogether. Whether from pollution, exploitation, or climate change the human population will finally outstrip the ability of the planet to renew itself fast enough for our demands.
These two vital issues of diminishing resources and widespread environmental destruction will only wreak more havoc on the worlds poorest who will be left with very few options. The optimistic will seek refuge in an ever smaller number of wealthy nations thus contributing to the decline of those countries that try to provide for them. The pessimistic will try their best to stay and make the best from what they have, but eventually capitulate and die but not before raising even more children. The angry will be filled with rage and seek revenge.
So there you have it, but quite certainly even more bad news will be on the horizon. However unpredictable life and the next four years may be one thing is for sure, there is a sizable number of Americans who will not be able to come to terms with a mixed-race president.
Should Obama win the election, as predicted by every poll there is, I would only hope that those Americans who decided not to vote for him would accept the result no matter how hard it may be for them to understand. However, history has shown there are some who are not that forgiving, especially when it comes to the election of a populist president from Illinois.
There have already been a few misguided plots against Obama in recent weeks, but as the days move into months and the frustration of a few continues to fester, I would suspect there will be more to come and only one needs to be successful. There are those that refuse to think a Democrat is nothing more than a socialist. And then others will refuse to see beyond the color of his skin. Whatever the motivation may be, it's certainly clear that Obama may be both the most liked next-president and the most hated next-president in our history.
Should the unthinkable happen, I wouldn't expect the same response from the citizenry after Abraham Lincoln was assassinated. If such a thing were to occur this time, it would cause a civil war and not become the final chapter of one.
Now, I have to say that even the thought of this happening makes me feel sick. One can only hope and prey we are lucky enough to make it through these next four years without incident to the president, but I highly doubt we'll be that fortunate because what makes him so appealing to the majority of people is exactly what others fear the most.
Not a pleasant thought to end a post on, however looking out the window and seeing the sun rising once again I know it's time for me to head out. Rest assured I'll post more about my take on the future, politics and life in general soon.
Until then, I hope everyone will practice their right to vote and may each of us wish the best for both candidates and one another.
And after all is said and done by the time we all head back to sleep we will know who our next president will be. Some of us will be sleeping pretty well, but others might need a little help.
But we can all take pride that each one of us who did decide to vote has played a part in the selection process that will enable our democracy to move forward in whatever direction we have chosen as a nation.
Of course people from all over the world will be anxiously awaiting the results as well. And they should for the last century our country has done more to change the world than any other.
Now it's our turn once again to show the world what we Americans are all about while we all hold our collective breath for the results.
But as recent history has shown it's not always about us and events in other countries can and do have serious consequences right here in the US.
So what can we look forward to in the next presidential cycle? One thing is for certain, change.
Let's take a look at some of the most important things that our next President, and other world leaders will have to tackle.
Both at home and abroad, the economic crisis will need to be solved. We know well from past experience that if this tricky problem isn't addressed quickly and decisively, it will fester like an in-law gone mad for a generation or more.
The world's diminishing energy resources have toyed with us several times before, but this time the question of oil and water will not go away, especially as the taps in the the Gulf begin to run dry, and the Colorado river as well as most others turns into a meaningless trickle.
Many scientists have already said that our impact on the environment has reached a tipping point, but during the next four years we should clearly see the handwriting on the wall as several vital ecosystems are lost altogether. Whether from pollution, exploitation, or climate change the human population will finally outstrip the ability of the planet to renew itself fast enough for our demands.
These two vital issues of diminishing resources and widespread environmental destruction will only wreak more havoc on the worlds poorest who will be left with very few options. The optimistic will seek refuge in an ever smaller number of wealthy nations thus contributing to the decline of those countries that try to provide for them. The pessimistic will try their best to stay and make the best from what they have, but eventually capitulate and die but not before raising even more children. The angry will be filled with rage and seek revenge.
So there you have it, but quite certainly even more bad news will be on the horizon. However unpredictable life and the next four years may be one thing is for sure, there is a sizable number of Americans who will not be able to come to terms with a mixed-race president.
Should Obama win the election, as predicted by every poll there is, I would only hope that those Americans who decided not to vote for him would accept the result no matter how hard it may be for them to understand. However, history has shown there are some who are not that forgiving, especially when it comes to the election of a populist president from Illinois.
There have already been a few misguided plots against Obama in recent weeks, but as the days move into months and the frustration of a few continues to fester, I would suspect there will be more to come and only one needs to be successful. There are those that refuse to think a Democrat is nothing more than a socialist. And then others will refuse to see beyond the color of his skin. Whatever the motivation may be, it's certainly clear that Obama may be both the most liked next-president and the most hated next-president in our history.
Should the unthinkable happen, I wouldn't expect the same response from the citizenry after Abraham Lincoln was assassinated. If such a thing were to occur this time, it would cause a civil war and not become the final chapter of one.
Now, I have to say that even the thought of this happening makes me feel sick. One can only hope and prey we are lucky enough to make it through these next four years without incident to the president, but I highly doubt we'll be that fortunate because what makes him so appealing to the majority of people is exactly what others fear the most.
Not a pleasant thought to end a post on, however looking out the window and seeing the sun rising once again I know it's time for me to head out. Rest assured I'll post more about my take on the future, politics and life in general soon.
Until then, I hope everyone will practice their right to vote and may each of us wish the best for both candidates and one another.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Troubled times ahead
The alarming news this weekend was not the economy or anything to do with the elections, but hidden in the sound bytes were a few very similar words mentioned by both Joe Biden and Colin Powell.
On Meet the Press, Colin Powell said, “There’s going to be a crisis come along on the 21st or 22nd of January that we don’t even know about right now.” And during a fundraiser in Seattle on the same day, Joe Biden said, "...we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis..." in reference to something happening almost immediately after the elections, but taking place next year.
The there was also word (from the Adirondack Daily Enterprise of all places) that top military leaders from the US and Europe privately met in rural New York state this weekend as well.
So the million dollar question is are these small blurbs related, and if they are, what do they know we don't.
One thing that strikes me is the dates Powell mentioned which are the beginning of the next President's term after these elections take place in November.
Right now most people might be thinking that this could be related to our current economic condition, but I highly doubt it.
In my opinion this has more to do with the question of Iran. Biden even went so far as to mention the Middle East and potentially Russia in reference to the challenge that presents the next President.
I would say that regardless of who is elected to the office in November, the question of Iran will remain the same. If Barack wins, then Bush will set the wheels in motion himself. If McCain wins, then it will happen either way as there are several indications that McCain is even more conservative than Bush.
An economic collapse, in my mind, does not require the joint secretive meetings of top military leaders from Europe and the US.
Four years ago, I as well as many others, suggested that the Republicans would lead us to a larger conflict in the Middle East and war with Iran. For the past year or so, Israel has been actively lobbying for assistance in bombing Iran assuming we are too weak politically to pull it off.
It makes a world of sense for crazy people to pull a last ditch stunt like this, especially with the situation in Iraq looking more manageable now.
Of course for the rest of us sane people these ominous signs leaking out in mainstream media are only adding fuel to the fire of speculation.
One can only hope our leaders are not as stupid as they seem, but if the last eight years are any indication I would wager this worst-case scenario is now on the table.
On Meet the Press, Colin Powell said, “There’s going to be a crisis come along on the 21st or 22nd of January that we don’t even know about right now.” And during a fundraiser in Seattle on the same day, Joe Biden said, "...we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis..." in reference to something happening almost immediately after the elections, but taking place next year.
The there was also word (from the Adirondack Daily Enterprise of all places) that top military leaders from the US and Europe privately met in rural New York state this weekend as well.
So the million dollar question is are these small blurbs related, and if they are, what do they know we don't.
One thing that strikes me is the dates Powell mentioned which are the beginning of the next President's term after these elections take place in November.
Right now most people might be thinking that this could be related to our current economic condition, but I highly doubt it.
In my opinion this has more to do with the question of Iran. Biden even went so far as to mention the Middle East and potentially Russia in reference to the challenge that presents the next President.
I would say that regardless of who is elected to the office in November, the question of Iran will remain the same. If Barack wins, then Bush will set the wheels in motion himself. If McCain wins, then it will happen either way as there are several indications that McCain is even more conservative than Bush.
An economic collapse, in my mind, does not require the joint secretive meetings of top military leaders from Europe and the US.
Four years ago, I as well as many others, suggested that the Republicans would lead us to a larger conflict in the Middle East and war with Iran. For the past year or so, Israel has been actively lobbying for assistance in bombing Iran assuming we are too weak politically to pull it off.
It makes a world of sense for crazy people to pull a last ditch stunt like this, especially with the situation in Iraq looking more manageable now.
Of course for the rest of us sane people these ominous signs leaking out in mainstream media are only adding fuel to the fire of speculation.
One can only hope our leaders are not as stupid as they seem, but if the last eight years are any indication I would wager this worst-case scenario is now on the table.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Who is steering this ship anyway?
While stock markets continue to feed off of one another in a seemingly never ending downward spiral that saw the Dow well below the 9,000 mark last week, people all over the world are busy holding their collective breath hoping this week might possibly be better.
And it might. Or better put, it better or we will all be suffering in a world of hurt.
With the stock price of many US companies like GM and Ford sitting at close to zero, it's hard to conceive that they could fall any further, but again, anything seems possible especially in this environment.
On Saturday, there were revelations that GM would possibly merge with Chrysler, but on Sunday there was the news that GM had already been in talks to merge with Ford beforehand. Then in an unusual move, both talks were suspended until the economy improves making it easier for a merger to take place.
However, even the head of the IMF has said not to expect any sort of recovery until late next year. I would say that even that estimate is optimistic.
GM, having already lost 70 billion dollars since 2004, is also looking for a bailout package, but the industry may only get around 50 billion or so if they're lucky. So it seems possible that the big three will quickly become a single entity, or face total bankruptcy if action isn't taken soon. Should a merger take place between GM, Ford and/or Chrysler expect massive layoffs and several US plant closures as they search for elusive profits and scale back similar product lines.
Individual states like Wisconsin will offer "too good to pass up" incentive packages in order to keep these plants form closing, but market conditions and basic viability will dictate their choices in this chaotic market.
Of course any talk of merger during this period of economic instability will result in massive layoffs, even more than usual as companies are looking to simply survive the crisis not prosper.
Currently the US has an estimated six percent unemployment rate, but we can expect this number to jump considerably in the months ahead. Already there are reports of massive budget shortfalls in several states like California, Illinois, Florida, etc.
For example, the Illinois comptroller recently reported a shortfall of over a billion dollars and stated they haven't been able to pay many of their bills. As these bills continue to pile up, several non-profit organizations and other contractors are on the brink of collapse. Many are attempting to hold out as long as possible, but most will not remain open by Christmas unless the state can find the money it desperately needs.
Like the auto industry, states are also facing a perfect storm of sorts.
With the credit markets all but dried up, there is no money to borrow to pay for what it owes. As more and more people find themselves out of work the tax base continues to shrink leaving less revenue to collect. So increasingly states will have to mimic corporate America and reduce their budgets further, or face the looming issue of bankruptcy.
As the downward spiral continues with the weakest falling first, we can expect property taxes (at least) to rise, services to be eliminated and projects to be shelved as the crisis begins to effect everyone.
Adding to the problem are millions of baby boomers who are seeing their retirement savings dry up almost completely leaving the majority of them with little option but to continue working for several more years. Many won't be able to keep their jobs, some will, but either way they will directly compete with the rest of us for the few remaining jobs left.
Luckily many of them already have homes that are bought and paid for, but this may be their only real investment left and it's certainly not a good time to sell.
Re-energizing the credit markets would go a long way toward helping the problem, but by most estimates the bubble is only half over. There are still massive problems lurking in the books of several companies in the US and around the world, so even if the government intervenes nothing will change until virtually all the bad debit is accounted for.
Some of these obligations will come due over the next two weeks and already there is talk of more companies, insurance providers and banks on the verge of collapse.
Both GM and Ford are already highly leveraged by well over a trillion dollars through credit default swaps as are issuers Hartford, MetLife, and Prudential on the insurance side.
As these issues continue to surface in the days, weeks and months ahead it will only fuel an increased sense of panic, especially on Wall Street.
Unfortunately while Main Street holds it collective breath, world politicians and the economies they represent are increasingly playing the blame game while on the surface appear to be cohesively working together.
It's becoming obvious that during the remainder of this lame-duck presidency, there will be little done to calm investors, sooth the nerves of companies and states facing bankruptcy, or placate other increasingly angry nations as we drive into uncharted territory.
As the election draws near one thing is for sure, the problems of Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, energy, global warming and the economy started or ignored by this administration will need to be corrected by someone else.
And we've been told time and time again that our economy is simply too big to collapse, but like the largest cruise liner of it's time, all it takes is a lack of observation (or regulation) and a half-hidden iceberg to sink something of truly Titanic proportions. Leaving us all to ask, who is steering this ship anyway?
And it might. Or better put, it better or we will all be suffering in a world of hurt.
With the stock price of many US companies like GM and Ford sitting at close to zero, it's hard to conceive that they could fall any further, but again, anything seems possible especially in this environment.
On Saturday, there were revelations that GM would possibly merge with Chrysler, but on Sunday there was the news that GM had already been in talks to merge with Ford beforehand. Then in an unusual move, both talks were suspended until the economy improves making it easier for a merger to take place.
However, even the head of the IMF has said not to expect any sort of recovery until late next year. I would say that even that estimate is optimistic.
GM, having already lost 70 billion dollars since 2004, is also looking for a bailout package, but the industry may only get around 50 billion or so if they're lucky. So it seems possible that the big three will quickly become a single entity, or face total bankruptcy if action isn't taken soon. Should a merger take place between GM, Ford and/or Chrysler expect massive layoffs and several US plant closures as they search for elusive profits and scale back similar product lines.
Individual states like Wisconsin will offer "too good to pass up" incentive packages in order to keep these plants form closing, but market conditions and basic viability will dictate their choices in this chaotic market.
Of course any talk of merger during this period of economic instability will result in massive layoffs, even more than usual as companies are looking to simply survive the crisis not prosper.
Currently the US has an estimated six percent unemployment rate, but we can expect this number to jump considerably in the months ahead. Already there are reports of massive budget shortfalls in several states like California, Illinois, Florida, etc.
For example, the Illinois comptroller recently reported a shortfall of over a billion dollars and stated they haven't been able to pay many of their bills. As these bills continue to pile up, several non-profit organizations and other contractors are on the brink of collapse. Many are attempting to hold out as long as possible, but most will not remain open by Christmas unless the state can find the money it desperately needs.
Like the auto industry, states are also facing a perfect storm of sorts.
With the credit markets all but dried up, there is no money to borrow to pay for what it owes. As more and more people find themselves out of work the tax base continues to shrink leaving less revenue to collect. So increasingly states will have to mimic corporate America and reduce their budgets further, or face the looming issue of bankruptcy.
As the downward spiral continues with the weakest falling first, we can expect property taxes (at least) to rise, services to be eliminated and projects to be shelved as the crisis begins to effect everyone.
Adding to the problem are millions of baby boomers who are seeing their retirement savings dry up almost completely leaving the majority of them with little option but to continue working for several more years. Many won't be able to keep their jobs, some will, but either way they will directly compete with the rest of us for the few remaining jobs left.
Luckily many of them already have homes that are bought and paid for, but this may be their only real investment left and it's certainly not a good time to sell.
Re-energizing the credit markets would go a long way toward helping the problem, but by most estimates the bubble is only half over. There are still massive problems lurking in the books of several companies in the US and around the world, so even if the government intervenes nothing will change until virtually all the bad debit is accounted for.
Some of these obligations will come due over the next two weeks and already there is talk of more companies, insurance providers and banks on the verge of collapse.
Both GM and Ford are already highly leveraged by well over a trillion dollars through credit default swaps as are issuers Hartford, MetLife, and Prudential on the insurance side.
As these issues continue to surface in the days, weeks and months ahead it will only fuel an increased sense of panic, especially on Wall Street.
Unfortunately while Main Street holds it collective breath, world politicians and the economies they represent are increasingly playing the blame game while on the surface appear to be cohesively working together.
It's becoming obvious that during the remainder of this lame-duck presidency, there will be little done to calm investors, sooth the nerves of companies and states facing bankruptcy, or placate other increasingly angry nations as we drive into uncharted territory.
As the election draws near one thing is for sure, the problems of Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, energy, global warming and the economy started or ignored by this administration will need to be corrected by someone else.
And we've been told time and time again that our economy is simply too big to collapse, but like the largest cruise liner of it's time, all it takes is a lack of observation (or regulation) and a half-hidden iceberg to sink something of truly Titanic proportions. Leaving us all to ask, who is steering this ship anyway?
Sunday, October 05, 2008
October Blues
For a hundred years or more, the American economy has dominated world markets, spurred unparalleled technological innovation and amassed vast amounts of capital well beyond any other nation in history.
Now, on "Black Monday" where, despite injecting hundreds of billions of dollars into credit markets by governments around the world, the final days of American economic hegemony are being increasingly discussed, not in the dark, quiet corners of conspiracy blogs, but in the national media and in legislative circles.
I'm sure this must be a surreal experience for some to see 1 trillion dollars of taxpayer money being thrown into the world economy only to see it being virtually ignored by the huge sucking sound coming from another almost 700 point drop in the Dow.
In just two days of trading we have been witness to a drop over 1,000 points. And on Tuesday, October 7th the total loss widened to over 1,500 in a continued world-wide decline in which the solvency of Brazil, Iceland and Pakistan have now come into question.
Tell me how we can stop the markets from crashing when our main solution is a huge bloated plan that is only designed to go into effect in a few weeks time at the earliest. At this rate, there might not be too much left for the bailout to save.
Unfortunately, from the time the bill was signed until today, the only other instrument the Fed has discussed is playing around with interest rates.
Obviously, we need more than getting housing prices to stabilize, and "confidence" to solve this epic crisis.
The bubble created by deregulating our housing market may have started this whole mess, but I wouldn't be too sure that our own governments 10 trillion dollar debt, among other things, won't add to these problems.
So it isn't too hard for us to see why lenders aren't feeling very generous lately, especially when average personal debit is over 10,000, not including our bill for financing this latest mega-bailout.
But is the answer just simple confidence? I highly doubt it. Consumers are also being socked with higher property taxes and fees at home, while states like California teeters on the brink of bankruptcy themselves. Fortunately, the price of gas is down for now, but that has also resulted in the devaluation of the Russian stock market by over 30 percent.
What we are really seeing is the spread of the housing debt bubble as it's moved from consumers defaulting, to the banks merging and crashing, and finally, to the solvency of governments themselves.
As prices fluctuate widely, companies, and even countries, will be seen to teeter on top of a precipice. So it's much wider than a domestic issue in which the average price of homes in the US can act as the silver bullet to world-wide stability.
The debit is already in circulation, and the bad bets made on the bad debit are also in circulation, making their rounds, too.
Sadly, our economy is about to go bust and our dominance over the world around us will be drastically reduced. But the issue that faces us now is not being properly addressed, and the people who are about to spend our money to help revive the economy are the very ones who perpetuated this whole mess in the first place.
In the short term, there are no real signs of relief either. Most companies expect a weak holiday shopping season to end out the year, and the only thing we can really look forward to is next spring where hopefully someone will buy a damn house.
Certainly, if the principle credit lines are not restored soon, people may have jobs but they might not be getting paid at all. And as the market continues to tank along with our home value and almost every other measure of our net worth, this just doesn't give us too much to be confident about.
Now, on "Black Monday" where, despite injecting hundreds of billions of dollars into credit markets by governments around the world, the final days of American economic hegemony are being increasingly discussed, not in the dark, quiet corners of conspiracy blogs, but in the national media and in legislative circles.
I'm sure this must be a surreal experience for some to see 1 trillion dollars of taxpayer money being thrown into the world economy only to see it being virtually ignored by the huge sucking sound coming from another almost 700 point drop in the Dow.
In just two days of trading we have been witness to a drop over 1,000 points. And on Tuesday, October 7th the total loss widened to over 1,500 in a continued world-wide decline in which the solvency of Brazil, Iceland and Pakistan have now come into question.
Tell me how we can stop the markets from crashing when our main solution is a huge bloated plan that is only designed to go into effect in a few weeks time at the earliest. At this rate, there might not be too much left for the bailout to save.
Unfortunately, from the time the bill was signed until today, the only other instrument the Fed has discussed is playing around with interest rates.
Obviously, we need more than getting housing prices to stabilize, and "confidence" to solve this epic crisis.
The bubble created by deregulating our housing market may have started this whole mess, but I wouldn't be too sure that our own governments 10 trillion dollar debt, among other things, won't add to these problems.
So it isn't too hard for us to see why lenders aren't feeling very generous lately, especially when average personal debit is over 10,000, not including our bill for financing this latest mega-bailout.
But is the answer just simple confidence? I highly doubt it. Consumers are also being socked with higher property taxes and fees at home, while states like California teeters on the brink of bankruptcy themselves. Fortunately, the price of gas is down for now, but that has also resulted in the devaluation of the Russian stock market by over 30 percent.
What we are really seeing is the spread of the housing debt bubble as it's moved from consumers defaulting, to the banks merging and crashing, and finally, to the solvency of governments themselves.
As prices fluctuate widely, companies, and even countries, will be seen to teeter on top of a precipice. So it's much wider than a domestic issue in which the average price of homes in the US can act as the silver bullet to world-wide stability.
The debit is already in circulation, and the bad bets made on the bad debit are also in circulation, making their rounds, too.
Sadly, our economy is about to go bust and our dominance over the world around us will be drastically reduced. But the issue that faces us now is not being properly addressed, and the people who are about to spend our money to help revive the economy are the very ones who perpetuated this whole mess in the first place.
In the short term, there are no real signs of relief either. Most companies expect a weak holiday shopping season to end out the year, and the only thing we can really look forward to is next spring where hopefully someone will buy a damn house.
Certainly, if the principle credit lines are not restored soon, people may have jobs but they might not be getting paid at all. And as the market continues to tank along with our home value and almost every other measure of our net worth, this just doesn't give us too much to be confident about.
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Winners and Losers
In almost any game there is always a winner and loser, except for those rare times the game your playing allows for a draw of some sort. Even a coin has been known to land on it's side from time to time, but in the end there always seems to be the struggle of man to want to turn everything he does into some sort of a game.
Take a look at the movement of combining modern warfare with the video game industry and it's all to obvious that we've come a long way towards turning even the most hated of things into something possibly even fun.
But what's so fun about life now that we have experienced the single largest drop in the stock market's history? Well, I am sure that even on this day, there were winners and losers.
You wouldn't know it from watching the TV though as the pundits told us we had just lost over a trillion dollars. You also probably don't know that during these historic economic times, some are treating this like it's just like a game. Unfortunately, there are millions of us who have no idea there is even a game being played, so it's all on us.
It's called the game of economic redistribution where your money goes into the hands of the wealthy elite. Some have called it "trickle down", but in effect its more like "evaporate up".
The longstanding argument is that if you give all the perks to the top one or two percent of us, then they will in turn provide more for us in terms of job creation, etc. But in all these years the American taxpayer has seen jobs leave our country, and other ones being given away here at home. Of course many of these breaks still don't keep our industries from collapsing either, so the majority of us have yet to see any benefit from this unique economic model.
Now we are being asked to bail them out? And when we do, it's our money being lost in the markets? Seems like even if we win, we will lose this one.
It's a little ironic that Bush Co has given us all appeasement money after the first election and earlier this year, but in his last days will ask for it all back plus plenty of interest.
Who made up these rules anyway?
Take a look at the movement of combining modern warfare with the video game industry and it's all to obvious that we've come a long way towards turning even the most hated of things into something possibly even fun.
But what's so fun about life now that we have experienced the single largest drop in the stock market's history? Well, I am sure that even on this day, there were winners and losers.
You wouldn't know it from watching the TV though as the pundits told us we had just lost over a trillion dollars. You also probably don't know that during these historic economic times, some are treating this like it's just like a game. Unfortunately, there are millions of us who have no idea there is even a game being played, so it's all on us.
It's called the game of economic redistribution where your money goes into the hands of the wealthy elite. Some have called it "trickle down", but in effect its more like "evaporate up".
The longstanding argument is that if you give all the perks to the top one or two percent of us, then they will in turn provide more for us in terms of job creation, etc. But in all these years the American taxpayer has seen jobs leave our country, and other ones being given away here at home. Of course many of these breaks still don't keep our industries from collapsing either, so the majority of us have yet to see any benefit from this unique economic model.
Now we are being asked to bail them out? And when we do, it's our money being lost in the markets? Seems like even if we win, we will lose this one.
It's a little ironic that Bush Co has given us all appeasement money after the first election and earlier this year, but in his last days will ask for it all back plus plenty of interest.
Who made up these rules anyway?
Monday, September 22, 2008
Market bets against hope
The Market is Now Pricing In the Genuine Possibility that the US will Default on Its Debt
While the chances that our economy will go into default has increased from 8 in January to over 25 basis points by mid September, the Daily Telegraph also reported that, as a result, market interest rates have also spiked going from -50 to 150 basis points in the same time.
Speculators have become increasing skeptical the sudden US move to price in another trillion dollars in government debt is a good one, and have bet against us. The result is making it harder for Uncle Sam and many Wall Street firms to seek the financing our economy needs to survive this crisis.
According to the George Washington blog posting on Saturday.
"You've heard of "credit default swaps". They are a type of derivative where one person places a bet that a certain company will go out of business, and another person on the other side of the contract places a bet that the company won't go out of business (see this and this).
Well, people are now starting to increase their use of credit default swaps to bet that the U.S. will default on its ability to pay on its treasury debt."
Last week we were witness to a wild ride on Wall Street and it looks like we are headed for more volatility in the future as the market reaction to more government debt is turning very negative.
As Reuters reports, as of Monday morning opening of the Asian markets ... "Stock futures off on rescue detail worry"
It seems our top economists are also helping to trigger the alarm bells this time. Avi Zenilman from the Politico reports Sunday that the experts have weighed in and don't seem too impressed.
This week will certainly see more wild fluctuations on Wall Street, and in markets abroad, sending us ever higher into the precipice of a final turn in one direction or the other. How long the markets can endure this dizzying pace of turmoil is anyone's guess, but we are certainly in need of stability not ever-increasing volatility.
While the chances that our economy will go into default has increased from 8 in January to over 25 basis points by mid September, the Daily Telegraph also reported that, as a result, market interest rates have also spiked going from -50 to 150 basis points in the same time.
Speculators have become increasing skeptical the sudden US move to price in another trillion dollars in government debt is a good one, and have bet against us. The result is making it harder for Uncle Sam and many Wall Street firms to seek the financing our economy needs to survive this crisis.
According to the George Washington blog posting on Saturday.
"You've heard of "credit default swaps". They are a type of derivative where one person places a bet that a certain company will go out of business, and another person on the other side of the contract places a bet that the company won't go out of business (see this and this).
Well, people are now starting to increase their use of credit default swaps to bet that the U.S. will default on its ability to pay on its treasury debt."
Last week we were witness to a wild ride on Wall Street and it looks like we are headed for more volatility in the future as the market reaction to more government debt is turning very negative.
As Reuters reports, as of Monday morning opening of the Asian markets ... "Stock futures off on rescue detail worry"
It seems our top economists are also helping to trigger the alarm bells this time. Avi Zenilman from the Politico reports Sunday that the experts have weighed in and don't seem too impressed.
This week will certainly see more wild fluctuations on Wall Street, and in markets abroad, sending us ever higher into the precipice of a final turn in one direction or the other. How long the markets can endure this dizzying pace of turmoil is anyone's guess, but we are certainly in need of stability not ever-increasing volatility.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Taxpayers get socked 1 trillion dollars
U.S. Govt. Soaks Taxpayers to Bail Out Wealthy Elite; $1 Trillion Rescue Fund Lands at Taxpayers' Feet
Published on 20-09-2008
Source: Natural News
"In its complete abandonment of free market principles, the U.S. government has banned all short selling of nearly 800 financial companies and set up a $1 trillion off-the-books "rescue" fund in an attempt to sweep financial losses under the rug while sending the bill to taxpayers. If you or I used the same accounting practices in our own businesses, we'd be arrested for serious white collar crimes, but the U.S. government respects no law and is now fully engaged in Enron-like accounting schemes to create the appearance of financial safety while it drives our nation deeper into unacknowledged financial disaster. ... Today, by shifting $1 trillion in debt to the taxpayers and suspending free market trading rules, the U.S. government has guaranteed its own financial demise."
Published on 20-09-2008
Source: Natural News
"In its complete abandonment of free market principles, the U.S. government has banned all short selling of nearly 800 financial companies and set up a $1 trillion off-the-books "rescue" fund in an attempt to sweep financial losses under the rug while sending the bill to taxpayers. If you or I used the same accounting practices in our own businesses, we'd be arrested for serious white collar crimes, but the U.S. government respects no law and is now fully engaged in Enron-like accounting schemes to create the appearance of financial safety while it drives our nation deeper into unacknowledged financial disaster. ... Today, by shifting $1 trillion in debt to the taxpayers and suspending free market trading rules, the U.S. government has guaranteed its own financial demise."
Friday, September 19, 2008
Too good to be true
I knew there was a good reason not to “play” the stock market. Jim Willie writes for Kitco today:
"Hidden inside the AIG bailout funding package, surely hastily cobbled together, but carefully enough to include a totally corrupt clause, was a handy dandy clause that permits raids. The conglomerate financial firms are permitted at this point to use private individual brokerage account funds to relieve their own liquidity pressures. This represents unauthorized loans of your stock account assets. So next, if the conglomerate fails, your stock account is part of the bankruptcy process. Finally the corrupt USGovt and corrupt Wall Street houses are desperate enough to put into policy, stated by the US Federal Reserve, outlining the authorized raid of your money. Beware.
In the olden days, this sort of thievery resulted in a rope, a tree, and a horse scared out from under the perpetrator. Now? The government in cahoots with the Fed actually helps the bankers steal the money."
"Hidden inside the AIG bailout funding package, surely hastily cobbled together, but carefully enough to include a totally corrupt clause, was a handy dandy clause that permits raids. The conglomerate financial firms are permitted at this point to use private individual brokerage account funds to relieve their own liquidity pressures. This represents unauthorized loans of your stock account assets. So next, if the conglomerate fails, your stock account is part of the bankruptcy process. Finally the corrupt USGovt and corrupt Wall Street houses are desperate enough to put into policy, stated by the US Federal Reserve, outlining the authorized raid of your money. Beware.
In the olden days, this sort of thievery resulted in a rope, a tree, and a horse scared out from under the perpetrator. Now? The government in cahoots with the Fed actually helps the bankers steal the money."
Thursday, September 18, 2008
FDIC by another name
In my wildest dreams, as I am sure may of us have had at one point or another, was an image of me vacationing in the most exotic of places living up the big life from my fat bank account swelled by the winnings of the lotto. Ahh, the life of sipping pina coladas by the calm ocean side as I listen to the ramblings of my overly large-breasted cohort.
And I have to admit that, from time to time, these visions of doing nothing other than enjoying my winnings have kept me up at night trying to figure out what, in fact, that money would buy me.
After dwelling upon this luxurious lifestyle for more than a mere second or two, I would inevitably picture what would happen if these funds were to dry up. But then the thought of keeping smaller nest eggs of 100,000 planted in various bank accounts throughout the country came to mind, and the fear simply faded. A restful happy slumber would come soon after.
Of course, try as hard as one might to pick the lucky numbers each week, I have yet to hit the jackpot. As for me, not being a gambler at all, my odds are probably worse than most. One must play the game so to speak. But while I pay my respects at the gas pump, there is always that inner temptation and the seemingly endless wait to pay the cashier behind the long lines of other patrons whenever the Megabucks kitty sits at over 200 million or so.
Unlike other dreams and thoughts, striking it rich by dropping a dollar or two once a week, certainly isn't unique. And neither is the notion of diversification. After all, logic backed up by that special sticker on my bank tellers window tells me, and most everyone else, that's the smart way to go.
How hard it must have been to live in the days of the Great Depression without the assurance of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation backing up my deposits. As hard as I try to imagine, sleeping on top of my cash-hoarded nest egg just doesn't materialize. I mean, how much space does someone really need to have in order to protect 200 million? Possibly a Dick Cheney sized vault?
Surely, it has to be virtually impossible to protect your cash money when it sits somewhere hidden just out of sight in your own home. Especially, if you like to have guests, or plan on raising a family. I mean, what would happen if there was a fire, or for that matter, almost any natural disaster. Poof! There would be nothing left. Frightening thought.
But sadly, that is just what seems to be happening in the markets today, and there is the very real possibility that own our self-made financial disaster could lead to the possibility that the FDIC will not only be unable to protect us, but actually contribute to the problem itself.
All this talk about a vast storehouse of money stashed away by the Fed in case of rainy days like this, intended for the sole purpose of helping the American taxpayer out in times of need is just that. Talk.
Since its inception, banks have been contributing funds to the FDIC by charging us various fees. What contributions are made by an individual bank is calculated via a ratings system determined by the Fed that ranks each insured member based upon the likelihood of failure. And just like credit for you and me, the more risky the customer the higher the fee.
Now, you might think that hoard of money has got to be pretty big by now right? Well, not so fast. Turns out this money doesn't just go to some huge vault hidden underneath a mountain somewhere at all. And there isn't even a lock box, so to speak. For all this time, these small fees you and I have been paying, go directly to the Fed who in turn can decide to spend them as they please. Whatever amount the FDIC says they have on hand, well, it isn't really on hand at all. Most of it has already been spent on various other things anyway.
Bridge to nowhere anyone?
What is worse is that these small fees change as the conditions do. So as an insured bank begins to hit rough water, their fees increase as well. Of course, this all gets passed on to their customers who may or may not decide to shift their deposits somewhere else. It's a sort of self fulfilling prophecy. One that seems to be materializing right in front of us now.
Have your banks fees been rising of late? Well, now you know why. Want to know where your money is going? Not to some fortress of economic resurrection that is for sure.
So now there is talk that the FDIC is running out of cash because they have been using it to bailout so many of its members of late. The talk is that when the time comes, the FDIC will have to raise its rates even higher and possibly borrow additional money from the Fed.
Either way, these options are nothing more than additional taxation sifted through various government mechanisms to cloud our understanding of the truth.
And this can't be anything other than the notion of putting lipstick on a pig, could it?
How proud we must all be to know there is a nice sticker, and the fine-tuned words of officials assuring us we will all be protected in times of need!
And I have to admit that, from time to time, these visions of doing nothing other than enjoying my winnings have kept me up at night trying to figure out what, in fact, that money would buy me.
After dwelling upon this luxurious lifestyle for more than a mere second or two, I would inevitably picture what would happen if these funds were to dry up. But then the thought of keeping smaller nest eggs of 100,000 planted in various bank accounts throughout the country came to mind, and the fear simply faded. A restful happy slumber would come soon after.
Of course, try as hard as one might to pick the lucky numbers each week, I have yet to hit the jackpot. As for me, not being a gambler at all, my odds are probably worse than most. One must play the game so to speak. But while I pay my respects at the gas pump, there is always that inner temptation and the seemingly endless wait to pay the cashier behind the long lines of other patrons whenever the Megabucks kitty sits at over 200 million or so.
Unlike other dreams and thoughts, striking it rich by dropping a dollar or two once a week, certainly isn't unique. And neither is the notion of diversification. After all, logic backed up by that special sticker on my bank tellers window tells me, and most everyone else, that's the smart way to go.
How hard it must have been to live in the days of the Great Depression without the assurance of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation backing up my deposits. As hard as I try to imagine, sleeping on top of my cash-hoarded nest egg just doesn't materialize. I mean, how much space does someone really need to have in order to protect 200 million? Possibly a Dick Cheney sized vault?
Surely, it has to be virtually impossible to protect your cash money when it sits somewhere hidden just out of sight in your own home. Especially, if you like to have guests, or plan on raising a family. I mean, what would happen if there was a fire, or for that matter, almost any natural disaster. Poof! There would be nothing left. Frightening thought.
But sadly, that is just what seems to be happening in the markets today, and there is the very real possibility that own our self-made financial disaster could lead to the possibility that the FDIC will not only be unable to protect us, but actually contribute to the problem itself.
All this talk about a vast storehouse of money stashed away by the Fed in case of rainy days like this, intended for the sole purpose of helping the American taxpayer out in times of need is just that. Talk.
Since its inception, banks have been contributing funds to the FDIC by charging us various fees. What contributions are made by an individual bank is calculated via a ratings system determined by the Fed that ranks each insured member based upon the likelihood of failure. And just like credit for you and me, the more risky the customer the higher the fee.
Now, you might think that hoard of money has got to be pretty big by now right? Well, not so fast. Turns out this money doesn't just go to some huge vault hidden underneath a mountain somewhere at all. And there isn't even a lock box, so to speak. For all this time, these small fees you and I have been paying, go directly to the Fed who in turn can decide to spend them as they please. Whatever amount the FDIC says they have on hand, well, it isn't really on hand at all. Most of it has already been spent on various other things anyway.
Bridge to nowhere anyone?
What is worse is that these small fees change as the conditions do. So as an insured bank begins to hit rough water, their fees increase as well. Of course, this all gets passed on to their customers who may or may not decide to shift their deposits somewhere else. It's a sort of self fulfilling prophecy. One that seems to be materializing right in front of us now.
Have your banks fees been rising of late? Well, now you know why. Want to know where your money is going? Not to some fortress of economic resurrection that is for sure.
So now there is talk that the FDIC is running out of cash because they have been using it to bailout so many of its members of late. The talk is that when the time comes, the FDIC will have to raise its rates even higher and possibly borrow additional money from the Fed.
Either way, these options are nothing more than additional taxation sifted through various government mechanisms to cloud our understanding of the truth.
And this can't be anything other than the notion of putting lipstick on a pig, could it?
How proud we must all be to know there is a nice sticker, and the fine-tuned words of officials assuring us we will all be protected in times of need!
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Socialism American Style
Over the weekend, intense negotiations were taking place at the highest levels of our government attempting to solve this country's myriad of problems from environmental disaster and dwindling natural resources to economic catastrophe.
And it seemed as though some sensibility had come over the newly emerging socialist tendencies of our financial system when the Fed announced Sunday that it would not come to the aid of Lehman Brothers - even though it had rescued a string of similar companies in previous months. But by Wednesday, it had again decided to come to the aid of another company, AIG. Then shortly afterwords it announced a bailout of our automotive industry as well.
Yet, with all of this "rescuing" going on, by midday the stock market was still down by over 300 points.
It is certainly becoming hard to keep track of all the socialist firsts this government is making these days. Bailout after bailout from investment firms, banks, home lenders, insurance companies, and now our auto industry.
Taking into account that the fallout from Lehman Brothers will far outweigh the collapse of WorldCom, (which was previously the largest corporate bankruptcy in American history). The sheer number of companies that would have become bankrupt hadn't the government stepped in is becoming enormous, both in size and quantity.
Our economy, as reflected through Wall Streets books, would be well beyond tatters by now hadn't these bailouts occurred. This is not even accounting for the several regional banks, like WaMu and SunTrust that have also seen better days before playing the game of unregulated predatory lending.
And yet, just as in physics, these losses don't just vanish into nothing because of the governments massive bailout program. There still needs to be an accounting for every dollar whether its shifted from private to public coffers, or from liquid to gas.
You can change the substance of something, like water into steam, but it will always retain the identical mass.
So, in essence, these massive bailouts happening practically everyday are going to have to be paid for by someone. Welcome to socialism American style.
Now we as taxpayers won't have to pay for it all as there will be numerous vultures lurking in the wings just waiting to scoop up the stinking remains of the corporate victims left behind. Of course, we will also welcome foreign "investment" from Britain, Europe, China and the Middle East.
And the trend will continue for as long as there is money to be made in swooping in and taking what we think are failed businesses. Just like the sale of the Sears Tower in Chicago, it's happening all around us from Wall Street to Main Street, fire sale after fire sale. If not our government, it will be another American company, if not another American company, then it will be another foreign company, or even country.
While this is taking place, larger numbers of Americans will find themselves without employment and wondering how much their personal burden will be to the government come tax time. Doubt we will be getting any rebate checks anytime soon.
Funny to imagine all of this could have happened in just eight short years, but that is the nature of our economy. Change can happen fast.
Now, the bottom is far from being over and already the American taxpayer is left holding a pretty horrible bag of corporate debts, the FDIC is running out of "insured" money, and the Fed is suddenly finding itself backed into a corner without any good options.
In fact, the Fed is now finding out that it is not able to set its rates because they are being set for them at record high levels by a market that is more concerned with hording its reserves, or using them to pay off these bad bets made in the derivatives market.
At the same time, the American consumer is also left with little to no options itself. The job market, as weak as it is, is our saving grace and the inbred system of payroll deductions, FICA, Medicare, et. al. will ensure that the government gets the money it needs to keep ticking along saving the country from its own mistakes. However, as good paying jobs are being replaced by increasingly menial labor and lower paying positions in an ever decreasing job market, this is also becoming a slippery slope.
Unlike the 60s, we can't just burn our draft cards so to speak and decide not to support a government who has had little to no regard for its constituents because the same paper that feeds us feeds our government. It's just like a modern version of indentured servant-hood, a step away from slavery but a form of ownership never-the-less. That combined with out right to demonstrate or protest having been taken away, as is now the case, we have in effect become "sheeple".
If the government was held accountable for its actions, and we had a say, this wouldn't be the case as our money would most likely pay for things we wanted them to, but not anymore. Through the system of corporate news cycles, we are made to believe what we should think, and so our power is reduced further.
With all options seemingly off the table for the Fed, and the American people, it seems like the game is up and we have lost this bad game of poker. How big the loss becomes will certainly be much more than the devastation of Hurricane Ike and Katrina put together, but in similar fashion, we will be left holding the bag paying for the mistakes of greedy people who have effectively brainwashed our entire political system.
We can only hope that after this man-made disaster has come full circle the wasteful debris of human greed is washed away like the bad paper they helped to create.
Until then, comrades, I will save a seat for you in Siberia.
And it seemed as though some sensibility had come over the newly emerging socialist tendencies of our financial system when the Fed announced Sunday that it would not come to the aid of Lehman Brothers - even though it had rescued a string of similar companies in previous months. But by Wednesday, it had again decided to come to the aid of another company, AIG. Then shortly afterwords it announced a bailout of our automotive industry as well.
Yet, with all of this "rescuing" going on, by midday the stock market was still down by over 300 points.
It is certainly becoming hard to keep track of all the socialist firsts this government is making these days. Bailout after bailout from investment firms, banks, home lenders, insurance companies, and now our auto industry.
Taking into account that the fallout from Lehman Brothers will far outweigh the collapse of WorldCom, (which was previously the largest corporate bankruptcy in American history). The sheer number of companies that would have become bankrupt hadn't the government stepped in is becoming enormous, both in size and quantity.
Our economy, as reflected through Wall Streets books, would be well beyond tatters by now hadn't these bailouts occurred. This is not even accounting for the several regional banks, like WaMu and SunTrust that have also seen better days before playing the game of unregulated predatory lending.
And yet, just as in physics, these losses don't just vanish into nothing because of the governments massive bailout program. There still needs to be an accounting for every dollar whether its shifted from private to public coffers, or from liquid to gas.
You can change the substance of something, like water into steam, but it will always retain the identical mass.
So, in essence, these massive bailouts happening practically everyday are going to have to be paid for by someone. Welcome to socialism American style.
Now we as taxpayers won't have to pay for it all as there will be numerous vultures lurking in the wings just waiting to scoop up the stinking remains of the corporate victims left behind. Of course, we will also welcome foreign "investment" from Britain, Europe, China and the Middle East.
And the trend will continue for as long as there is money to be made in swooping in and taking what we think are failed businesses. Just like the sale of the Sears Tower in Chicago, it's happening all around us from Wall Street to Main Street, fire sale after fire sale. If not our government, it will be another American company, if not another American company, then it will be another foreign company, or even country.
While this is taking place, larger numbers of Americans will find themselves without employment and wondering how much their personal burden will be to the government come tax time. Doubt we will be getting any rebate checks anytime soon.
Funny to imagine all of this could have happened in just eight short years, but that is the nature of our economy. Change can happen fast.
Now, the bottom is far from being over and already the American taxpayer is left holding a pretty horrible bag of corporate debts, the FDIC is running out of "insured" money, and the Fed is suddenly finding itself backed into a corner without any good options.
In fact, the Fed is now finding out that it is not able to set its rates because they are being set for them at record high levels by a market that is more concerned with hording its reserves, or using them to pay off these bad bets made in the derivatives market.
At the same time, the American consumer is also left with little to no options itself. The job market, as weak as it is, is our saving grace and the inbred system of payroll deductions, FICA, Medicare, et. al. will ensure that the government gets the money it needs to keep ticking along saving the country from its own mistakes. However, as good paying jobs are being replaced by increasingly menial labor and lower paying positions in an ever decreasing job market, this is also becoming a slippery slope.
Unlike the 60s, we can't just burn our draft cards so to speak and decide not to support a government who has had little to no regard for its constituents because the same paper that feeds us feeds our government. It's just like a modern version of indentured servant-hood, a step away from slavery but a form of ownership never-the-less. That combined with out right to demonstrate or protest having been taken away, as is now the case, we have in effect become "sheeple".
If the government was held accountable for its actions, and we had a say, this wouldn't be the case as our money would most likely pay for things we wanted them to, but not anymore. Through the system of corporate news cycles, we are made to believe what we should think, and so our power is reduced further.
With all options seemingly off the table for the Fed, and the American people, it seems like the game is up and we have lost this bad game of poker. How big the loss becomes will certainly be much more than the devastation of Hurricane Ike and Katrina put together, but in similar fashion, we will be left holding the bag paying for the mistakes of greedy people who have effectively brainwashed our entire political system.
We can only hope that after this man-made disaster has come full circle the wasteful debris of human greed is washed away like the bad paper they helped to create.
Until then, comrades, I will save a seat for you in Siberia.
UFO Reports Continue
As a "Cheesehead" it was hard not to find interest in this story because it took place relatively close to home. Being that this is my first post on the unexplained, I suppose it would be appropriate to let my readers know my beliefs about UFOs, the supernatural and the paranormal.
I don't really have any. Not yet anyway.
So let's move on to the story at hand. What is so interesting is that this incident was called to the attention of the police and not one but five of them seem to be as perplexed as the common man who reported it, (and there were many).
Historically, UFOs have been with us for as long as we have had the ability to write. As you may already know, the Bible has several accounts of the supernatural, but in the Book of Enoch (which was summarily tossed out by the Roman council on establishing a universal religion) there were some detailed accounts of UFOs. Not that the term UFO was used in those days. By the way, this council was also the same group of enlightened souls that decided it was best to tell us the World was flat, something which unfortunately, several people still believe today despite reports to the contrary.
Even before the Book of Enoch was penned, the earliest writings from Summarian times also talked about our existence being created for the purpose of cheap alien labor.
There are Egyptian hieroglyphs, medieval paintings, and even ancient African folklore passed down through the millenia which detail, in their own crude way, strange things that happened in the skies above.
In fact, throughout history, no matter what part of the world we investigate, (including Wake Island) there is a common link to UFOs. So much that one wonders why we don't try to make more sense of it than we do.
The problem is that it tends to get in the way of our other spiritual beliefs, and therefor has a tendency to make us feel powerless, as well as less than the top dogs in the solar system which we have spent just as long trying to prove.
I really wonder what happens in the minds of good Christian people who suddenly see unexplained objects hovering overhead and then suddenly disappear? Does this mere observation suddenly call into question their whole belief system?
Now I've heard some tell me that if they knew Jesus didn't exist, there would be no point to living. Hmmm. I have to take objection to that line of thought. Primarily because that reflects a complete lack of thought in the first place. Isn't the simple act of living make life worth living?
Aren't we equipped with the ability to reason, to love and to adapt given adverse situations? I hope so, but just as in the case with the most recent hurricane, Ike, that hit Texas last week, plenty of people decided to stay right where they were because of a belief system which prevented them to help themselves despite certain catastrophe.
When your Governor tells you being in the path of the hurricane constitutes certain death, you would think that would be enough. Unfortunately not. How easily people can turn off their reasoning circuits and face death head-on. May be it's good for population control, but not so good for the collective us.
Now, just a few more words here. I am not what you would call a "doubting Thomas" because to tell you the truth, doubt is something I have when all the information has been presented to me and then I disagree. So, in the case of Aliens from outer space, and modern religion, I am more of an undecided until further information has been presented type.
Faith is all well and good for most, but when it comes to making a life changing decision, I would prefer to have the facts around me and be confident in knowing what the outcome is before action is taken. I have faith the sun will come up tomorrow because it did so yesterday and the day before that, etc. Blind faith, if I was so inclined, may lead me to believe that the sun wouldn't come up tomorrow.
Blind faith worries me, because in essence, the only way I could have derived this type of belief is because someone is trying to coerce me, whether it be in a convincing argument or in written form, there is still a complete lack of evidence and usually a surprising amount of logic that tends to state otherwise.
I guess my point is that we shouldn't even believe what we think we see, even if it is our job to observe and protect the laws that govern us. Not because it may constitute a complete re-examination of our core belief system, but because we as humans place much too high an emphasis on our beliefs in the first place. Especially, if it causes us to act in ways that are harmful to ourselves or to others around us.
Can we agree to simply observe what we see and take that experience for what it is? Can we simply walk through the course of our lives and experience it happily not needing to fit it into convenient little personal boxes that trigger our inner fear mechanisms?
How shattering it must have been for so many people who were suddenly confronted with the knowledge that the Earth was in fact round. How could they place Heaven and Hell anymore? In fact, several people's lives were cut short simply because if this change in belief.
To me, that constitutes a sort of universal failure on our part. Let's say aliens do exist, does that mean Jesus didn't? For my own sake, I hope we don't have to find out the answer to that question because I don't think the human condition could handle it very well.
Strangely, if one looks deep enough, there really might be room for both, but that's another story all together. As is the case with almost everything ... anything is possible.
I don't really have any. Not yet anyway.
So let's move on to the story at hand. What is so interesting is that this incident was called to the attention of the police and not one but five of them seem to be as perplexed as the common man who reported it, (and there were many).
Historically, UFOs have been with us for as long as we have had the ability to write. As you may already know, the Bible has several accounts of the supernatural, but in the Book of Enoch (which was summarily tossed out by the Roman council on establishing a universal religion) there were some detailed accounts of UFOs. Not that the term UFO was used in those days. By the way, this council was also the same group of enlightened souls that decided it was best to tell us the World was flat, something which unfortunately, several people still believe today despite reports to the contrary.
Even before the Book of Enoch was penned, the earliest writings from Summarian times also talked about our existence being created for the purpose of cheap alien labor.
There are Egyptian hieroglyphs, medieval paintings, and even ancient African folklore passed down through the millenia which detail, in their own crude way, strange things that happened in the skies above.
In fact, throughout history, no matter what part of the world we investigate, (including Wake Island) there is a common link to UFOs. So much that one wonders why we don't try to make more sense of it than we do.
The problem is that it tends to get in the way of our other spiritual beliefs, and therefor has a tendency to make us feel powerless, as well as less than the top dogs in the solar system which we have spent just as long trying to prove.
I really wonder what happens in the minds of good Christian people who suddenly see unexplained objects hovering overhead and then suddenly disappear? Does this mere observation suddenly call into question their whole belief system?
Now I've heard some tell me that if they knew Jesus didn't exist, there would be no point to living. Hmmm. I have to take objection to that line of thought. Primarily because that reflects a complete lack of thought in the first place. Isn't the simple act of living make life worth living?
Aren't we equipped with the ability to reason, to love and to adapt given adverse situations? I hope so, but just as in the case with the most recent hurricane, Ike, that hit Texas last week, plenty of people decided to stay right where they were because of a belief system which prevented them to help themselves despite certain catastrophe.
When your Governor tells you being in the path of the hurricane constitutes certain death, you would think that would be enough. Unfortunately not. How easily people can turn off their reasoning circuits and face death head-on. May be it's good for population control, but not so good for the collective us.
Now, just a few more words here. I am not what you would call a "doubting Thomas" because to tell you the truth, doubt is something I have when all the information has been presented to me and then I disagree. So, in the case of Aliens from outer space, and modern religion, I am more of an undecided until further information has been presented type.
Faith is all well and good for most, but when it comes to making a life changing decision, I would prefer to have the facts around me and be confident in knowing what the outcome is before action is taken. I have faith the sun will come up tomorrow because it did so yesterday and the day before that, etc. Blind faith, if I was so inclined, may lead me to believe that the sun wouldn't come up tomorrow.
Blind faith worries me, because in essence, the only way I could have derived this type of belief is because someone is trying to coerce me, whether it be in a convincing argument or in written form, there is still a complete lack of evidence and usually a surprising amount of logic that tends to state otherwise.
I guess my point is that we shouldn't even believe what we think we see, even if it is our job to observe and protect the laws that govern us. Not because it may constitute a complete re-examination of our core belief system, but because we as humans place much too high an emphasis on our beliefs in the first place. Especially, if it causes us to act in ways that are harmful to ourselves or to others around us.
Can we agree to simply observe what we see and take that experience for what it is? Can we simply walk through the course of our lives and experience it happily not needing to fit it into convenient little personal boxes that trigger our inner fear mechanisms?
How shattering it must have been for so many people who were suddenly confronted with the knowledge that the Earth was in fact round. How could they place Heaven and Hell anymore? In fact, several people's lives were cut short simply because if this change in belief.
To me, that constitutes a sort of universal failure on our part. Let's say aliens do exist, does that mean Jesus didn't? For my own sake, I hope we don't have to find out the answer to that question because I don't think the human condition could handle it very well.
Strangely, if one looks deep enough, there really might be room for both, but that's another story all together. As is the case with almost everything ... anything is possible.
Monday, September 15, 2008
American Gamblers
Heard of he phrase, "put your money where your mouth is?" Well, if you're an American investor, you probably live by that phrase and are eating it right about now.
For some time the American economy has moved away from the production of goods and entered into the services industry. The end of the industrial revolution happened sometime shortly after WWII as the United States began to expand its global reach, providing other countries, such as Japan and Germany with the resources necessary to compete with our companies here at home. We did this through the Monroe Doctrine in Europe and under the reconstruction efforts of General Douglas McArthur in Asia.
By the 70s, it was becoming a hard pill for many Americans to swallow. And we are still in the process of losing our manufacturing base to foreign competitors, most notably China and southern Asia now.
Hard pill? Quite. The US has enjoyed being the primary manufacturing hub of the world since shortly after the American Revolution. Our continued innovation and subsequent manufacturing of these inventions, have provided this country with the ability to become the strongest nation on earth.
Interestingly, almost all finished goods prior to the Revolution were produced in England and then re-sold to consumers all across the world. Take clothes made from cotton as an example. American farmers would grow and then sell the cotton to manufacturing companies in England who would then make clothing items and, in turn, transport them back overseas to be sold as a final product. This was the case for almost every conceivable product, including tea.
As for the English, this system worked wonders for their economy until its colonies wanted to produce their own goods without having to bear the additional cost of shipping, or pay "unfair taxes" on these goods. The British knew a good thing when they had it and tried very hard to hold on to the advantage as long as possible.
However, after WWII the United States willingly gave several nations, (formally our enemies) the ability to directly compete with its own companies at home by building up their manufacturing bases even better than they were before. Often even better than our own.
Fortunately, the resourcefulness of Americans would lead to the growth of the services industry which quickly began to prosper in conjunction with the technological revolution. Again, the United States had a great deal of opportunity to prosper economically, and dominate, for a very long period of time.
However, we are currently struggling to remain competitive with other industrialized countries in the innovation of new technology, and we have long ago given them the reins of production. Those latest iPods that enter the market right before Christmas every year, are made in China. From the development of the iPhone, it has taken all of one year for an Asian company to develop and market a competitive product, which sells for a third of the price.
The services industry has followed the same path as manufacturing has, repeating pretty much the same mistakes. In order to remain competitive, American companies have decided to provide most its services off-shore. Because of the governments unwillingness to regulate how business do their business, this trend has continued unabated for almost two decades now. The result of which has provided for the emergence of several other countries as players in the world market.
Then in the late 90s, a new type of economy began to bloom here in the US and it was called the derivatives market.
Lets take a quick step back and glimpse a shortened snapshot of the history of the American economy.
First, we provided raw materials for others to produce, selling vast quantities to other countries and then buying the finished product later. Then we quickly became the world leader in manufacturing, but after about two hundred years of (mostly) unabated prosperity, we decided to provide other countries with the ability to directly compete with us. While this was happening, we painfully transformed our economy from production of goods to the servicing of these goods. Not too long afterwords, we decided to save a little money and sacrifice quality to save a buck here and there shipping the bulk of the service industry overseas. Now, the bulk of our capital is used to speculate on those very goods and services we used to own themselves.
In essence, we are now a country of gamblers. No matter how you look at it, the derivatives market is nothing other than sheer speculation with no guaranteed outcome. That is why anyone who is smart gets insurance on it, or doesn't play the game at all.
According to the richest man in the world, Warren Buffet has talked about the derivatives market using the terms, "ticking time-bomb","A fool's game", and "weapon of mass destruction."
Now, derivatives are nothing like stocks traded on Wall Street. They are very different things all together mainly because the vast majority of derivatives are traded outside of the market and are not held on a company's "audited" balance sheets. They also have really nothing to do with anything other than the concept of risk.
Stock is ownership in something. A derivative is really nothing other than "absence of risk" in something like a stock, or really anything you would normally put your money in. The upside is that the potential returns are generally faster and often larger.
Now why would I include this singular type of trading into the overall picture of our entire economy and equate it with our real economy? Simple. Because since 2003, the derivatives market has been larger than our combined global monetary wealth.
That's right, we (the entire global community) are no sitting on basically nothing other than sheer speculation which is now estimated at over 500 trillion dollars. In essence, Wall Street has become the new Las Vegas, but have put up our hard-earned money and savings as collateral.
What's worse is that they have continued to hide their devious accounting from the federal government, and lied to us about the true nature of the risks involved. Of course, none of this would have been allowed to occur if it hadn't been for the fed to give its OK, and it did this under the leadership of Alan Greenspan who now tells us we are about to head right off the cliff and into possibly another Great Depression.
How nice.
Also, unlike stocks which will last indefinitely-until sold to another buyer, or the company itself is sold, (or goes belly up), all derivatives have an expiration date associated with them.
This is why banks and investment firms, among others, have needed access to cash quickly or risk total collapse. This money is being used to pay off its bad bets in the derivatives market.
Now derivatives are not really sold in a market like Wall Street so to speak. By the derivatives market I mean to say whenever there is a buyer and a seller brought together to create a market.
Because there is no real regulation of derivatives, any seller of a derivative can find their own buyer willing to risk a future outcome. And this is why banks are swallowing up investment firms. Investment firms have basically purchased bad derivatives from banks who cannot pay them back for these loses when they are due. If these banks did not take them into their fold, then they in turn would be held to pay for these bets gone wrong, and as a result, probably go belly up themselves. That would be a really, really bad thing because our money is in those banks.
So, while investors have for years been telling the public that the best strategy for the American consumer is to take a long-term conservative approach to investing our money, they have essentially ignored their own advice and played craps with our hard-earned money we give them in good faith.
This while certain politicians have told us to quit "whining" about the economy and then gone ahead and decided to use taxpayer money to bail out these very same banks and investment firms who put us all here in the first place.
Make no mistake about it, until the derivatives market is brought under tight regulatory control, which I doubt it ever will be. The American consumer will continue to be mislead by the very people we are supposed to be putting out trust in.
But again, this shouldn't really be news to you.
For some time the American economy has moved away from the production of goods and entered into the services industry. The end of the industrial revolution happened sometime shortly after WWII as the United States began to expand its global reach, providing other countries, such as Japan and Germany with the resources necessary to compete with our companies here at home. We did this through the Monroe Doctrine in Europe and under the reconstruction efforts of General Douglas McArthur in Asia.
By the 70s, it was becoming a hard pill for many Americans to swallow. And we are still in the process of losing our manufacturing base to foreign competitors, most notably China and southern Asia now.
Hard pill? Quite. The US has enjoyed being the primary manufacturing hub of the world since shortly after the American Revolution. Our continued innovation and subsequent manufacturing of these inventions, have provided this country with the ability to become the strongest nation on earth.
Interestingly, almost all finished goods prior to the Revolution were produced in England and then re-sold to consumers all across the world. Take clothes made from cotton as an example. American farmers would grow and then sell the cotton to manufacturing companies in England who would then make clothing items and, in turn, transport them back overseas to be sold as a final product. This was the case for almost every conceivable product, including tea.
As for the English, this system worked wonders for their economy until its colonies wanted to produce their own goods without having to bear the additional cost of shipping, or pay "unfair taxes" on these goods. The British knew a good thing when they had it and tried very hard to hold on to the advantage as long as possible.
However, after WWII the United States willingly gave several nations, (formally our enemies) the ability to directly compete with its own companies at home by building up their manufacturing bases even better than they were before. Often even better than our own.
Fortunately, the resourcefulness of Americans would lead to the growth of the services industry which quickly began to prosper in conjunction with the technological revolution. Again, the United States had a great deal of opportunity to prosper economically, and dominate, for a very long period of time.
However, we are currently struggling to remain competitive with other industrialized countries in the innovation of new technology, and we have long ago given them the reins of production. Those latest iPods that enter the market right before Christmas every year, are made in China. From the development of the iPhone, it has taken all of one year for an Asian company to develop and market a competitive product, which sells for a third of the price.
The services industry has followed the same path as manufacturing has, repeating pretty much the same mistakes. In order to remain competitive, American companies have decided to provide most its services off-shore. Because of the governments unwillingness to regulate how business do their business, this trend has continued unabated for almost two decades now. The result of which has provided for the emergence of several other countries as players in the world market.
Then in the late 90s, a new type of economy began to bloom here in the US and it was called the derivatives market.
Lets take a quick step back and glimpse a shortened snapshot of the history of the American economy.
First, we provided raw materials for others to produce, selling vast quantities to other countries and then buying the finished product later. Then we quickly became the world leader in manufacturing, but after about two hundred years of (mostly) unabated prosperity, we decided to provide other countries with the ability to directly compete with us. While this was happening, we painfully transformed our economy from production of goods to the servicing of these goods. Not too long afterwords, we decided to save a little money and sacrifice quality to save a buck here and there shipping the bulk of the service industry overseas. Now, the bulk of our capital is used to speculate on those very goods and services we used to own themselves.
In essence, we are now a country of gamblers. No matter how you look at it, the derivatives market is nothing other than sheer speculation with no guaranteed outcome. That is why anyone who is smart gets insurance on it, or doesn't play the game at all.
According to the richest man in the world, Warren Buffet has talked about the derivatives market using the terms, "ticking time-bomb","A fool's game", and "weapon of mass destruction."
Now, derivatives are nothing like stocks traded on Wall Street. They are very different things all together mainly because the vast majority of derivatives are traded outside of the market and are not held on a company's "audited" balance sheets. They also have really nothing to do with anything other than the concept of risk.
Stock is ownership in something. A derivative is really nothing other than "absence of risk" in something like a stock, or really anything you would normally put your money in. The upside is that the potential returns are generally faster and often larger.
Now why would I include this singular type of trading into the overall picture of our entire economy and equate it with our real economy? Simple. Because since 2003, the derivatives market has been larger than our combined global monetary wealth.
That's right, we (the entire global community) are no sitting on basically nothing other than sheer speculation which is now estimated at over 500 trillion dollars. In essence, Wall Street has become the new Las Vegas, but have put up our hard-earned money and savings as collateral.
What's worse is that they have continued to hide their devious accounting from the federal government, and lied to us about the true nature of the risks involved. Of course, none of this would have been allowed to occur if it hadn't been for the fed to give its OK, and it did this under the leadership of Alan Greenspan who now tells us we are about to head right off the cliff and into possibly another Great Depression.
How nice.
Also, unlike stocks which will last indefinitely-until sold to another buyer, or the company itself is sold, (or goes belly up), all derivatives have an expiration date associated with them.
This is why banks and investment firms, among others, have needed access to cash quickly or risk total collapse. This money is being used to pay off its bad bets in the derivatives market.
Now derivatives are not really sold in a market like Wall Street so to speak. By the derivatives market I mean to say whenever there is a buyer and a seller brought together to create a market.
Because there is no real regulation of derivatives, any seller of a derivative can find their own buyer willing to risk a future outcome. And this is why banks are swallowing up investment firms. Investment firms have basically purchased bad derivatives from banks who cannot pay them back for these loses when they are due. If these banks did not take them into their fold, then they in turn would be held to pay for these bets gone wrong, and as a result, probably go belly up themselves. That would be a really, really bad thing because our money is in those banks.
So, while investors have for years been telling the public that the best strategy for the American consumer is to take a long-term conservative approach to investing our money, they have essentially ignored their own advice and played craps with our hard-earned money we give them in good faith.
This while certain politicians have told us to quit "whining" about the economy and then gone ahead and decided to use taxpayer money to bail out these very same banks and investment firms who put us all here in the first place.
Make no mistake about it, until the derivatives market is brought under tight regulatory control, which I doubt it ever will be. The American consumer will continue to be mislead by the very people we are supposed to be putting out trust in.
But again, this shouldn't really be news to you.
Bank Dominos
Well after a good year or two of abject denial, the game of bank domino's is finally here.
Of course the first real sign of this came back in March of this year, but with the quick action of the Fed, as well as the support of the EU and Asian banking systems we were able to delay this deadly game. Unfortunately, their quick initial reaction only helped to make things just that much worse, and instead of letting those foolish banks deal with their own self-made problems, we will now have to foot the bill.
It is almost funny to hear from the mainstream media that the bailout of Fannie May and Freddie Mac will cost only 200 or so billion dollars and that we are only a year at most away from recovery.
We still seem to place out faith in what the corporate media keep telling us, even after it is evident they have lied to us time and time again.
This week may finally be the week when a real sense of the true impact of the economy comes home to rest, but again, this will only be the beginning. There are the debt markets and derivative markets to consider as well, but I won't get into that here.
In the coming weeks, and possibly months, we'll find out that the Fed will not be able to keep itself afloat let alone the several banks and investment houses it has decided to assist. This is why it decided to let Lehman Brothers fall by the wayside, and will probably continue to let others fail well into the future.
If other countries believe that the Fed is over-extended, then there will be a worldwide panic never seen before and most of the financial impact will hit overseas first before it comes back here to the US. No one will want anything to do with the dollar because it's real value will actually be negative.
However, given the global nature of the modern economy, the backlash will hit suddenly like a backhand slap.
Already, airlines in Europe are folding, almost weekly now. Let's see how many more airlines fail abruptly before the end of the year, (some estimates are up to 60 worldwide). And what about next year?
Since March alone there have been 90,000 factories shut down in China, and there's a huge surplus of trade goods sitting at the docks. Many, many more factories will follow for the same reason they succeeded in the first place-they have no margins.
And neither did the airlines. Really the only margins that were left in this modern economy was kept in the hands of big banks and the government, but now their margins are quickly disappearing in smoke.
Of course, our government hasn't had profitability since Bush & Co. took office, but never-the-less have been running on the "good faith" of other countries to lend us the money, but soon those IOUs will come home to rest.
Facing the bailout of so many financial institutions, and itself, while continuing a policy of spend, spend, spend there will be no recovery. Foreign capital will dry up almost completely as these nations will be too busy helping themselves out of this terrible jam.
This begins a downward spiral until a true bottom is reached. Unlike a well, this bottom isn't something that one can simply quantify, or set in stone because the factors which have caused this haven't been corrected. And until they have been, there will be almost no limit to how far our collective economies will tumble.
One thing is for sure, this will spell the virtual end to the global economy as we know it today. By the time there is any semblance of stability, transportation costs will be much too high for small ticket goods to be shipped vast distances. Airline travel will be limited to the wealthy few, and smaller nations will balk en-mass, as they are already beginning to do now, to our version of global prosperity.
As such, the global peg the US dollar once had will be erased forever, and with it our vision of an American hegemony for the world.
How long we continue to keep our head in the sand is entirely up to us, but either way the real damage has already been done. Even if the housing market stabilizes, the economy will feel the pain for several years to come for several reasons.
The American consumer is completely tapped out. Other than the wealthiest 1 percent, the rest of us saddled with our own debt, will now be paying for the governments bailouts over the past year, a continued trade deficit that will not longer be paid for by other countries, and a failed government straddling itself with even more debt as the baby boomers begin to retire en mass.
Now, because there is little manufacturing base left in this country, there is only the hope that the American consumer will lead the economy back on its feet, and as is already evident, we have nothing left with which to buy our country back into prosperity.
So, until those economic dominoes stop falling around us and we have emerged from our own collective debt to again spend our economy back into prosperity there will be no recovery in sight.
Of course, it is the system that let us down. The abject deregulation of the financial industry, the constant lies of "All is Well" that are fed to us via mass media, and the inability of the government to do anything other than make things worse, we might not see the end of the tunnel for a very, very long time.
Ironically, those countries which will be least effected by this world-wide game of dominoes are the ones we are getting closer and closer to war with right now. That is, other than the Gulf states bordering Saudi Arabia.
Of course the first real sign of this came back in March of this year, but with the quick action of the Fed, as well as the support of the EU and Asian banking systems we were able to delay this deadly game. Unfortunately, their quick initial reaction only helped to make things just that much worse, and instead of letting those foolish banks deal with their own self-made problems, we will now have to foot the bill.
It is almost funny to hear from the mainstream media that the bailout of Fannie May and Freddie Mac will cost only 200 or so billion dollars and that we are only a year at most away from recovery.
We still seem to place out faith in what the corporate media keep telling us, even after it is evident they have lied to us time and time again.
This week may finally be the week when a real sense of the true impact of the economy comes home to rest, but again, this will only be the beginning. There are the debt markets and derivative markets to consider as well, but I won't get into that here.
In the coming weeks, and possibly months, we'll find out that the Fed will not be able to keep itself afloat let alone the several banks and investment houses it has decided to assist. This is why it decided to let Lehman Brothers fall by the wayside, and will probably continue to let others fail well into the future.
If other countries believe that the Fed is over-extended, then there will be a worldwide panic never seen before and most of the financial impact will hit overseas first before it comes back here to the US. No one will want anything to do with the dollar because it's real value will actually be negative.
However, given the global nature of the modern economy, the backlash will hit suddenly like a backhand slap.
Already, airlines in Europe are folding, almost weekly now. Let's see how many more airlines fail abruptly before the end of the year, (some estimates are up to 60 worldwide). And what about next year?
Since March alone there have been 90,000 factories shut down in China, and there's a huge surplus of trade goods sitting at the docks. Many, many more factories will follow for the same reason they succeeded in the first place-they have no margins.
And neither did the airlines. Really the only margins that were left in this modern economy was kept in the hands of big banks and the government, but now their margins are quickly disappearing in smoke.
Of course, our government hasn't had profitability since Bush & Co. took office, but never-the-less have been running on the "good faith" of other countries to lend us the money, but soon those IOUs will come home to rest.
Facing the bailout of so many financial institutions, and itself, while continuing a policy of spend, spend, spend there will be no recovery. Foreign capital will dry up almost completely as these nations will be too busy helping themselves out of this terrible jam.
This begins a downward spiral until a true bottom is reached. Unlike a well, this bottom isn't something that one can simply quantify, or set in stone because the factors which have caused this haven't been corrected. And until they have been, there will be almost no limit to how far our collective economies will tumble.
One thing is for sure, this will spell the virtual end to the global economy as we know it today. By the time there is any semblance of stability, transportation costs will be much too high for small ticket goods to be shipped vast distances. Airline travel will be limited to the wealthy few, and smaller nations will balk en-mass, as they are already beginning to do now, to our version of global prosperity.
As such, the global peg the US dollar once had will be erased forever, and with it our vision of an American hegemony for the world.
How long we continue to keep our head in the sand is entirely up to us, but either way the real damage has already been done. Even if the housing market stabilizes, the economy will feel the pain for several years to come for several reasons.
The American consumer is completely tapped out. Other than the wealthiest 1 percent, the rest of us saddled with our own debt, will now be paying for the governments bailouts over the past year, a continued trade deficit that will not longer be paid for by other countries, and a failed government straddling itself with even more debt as the baby boomers begin to retire en mass.
Now, because there is little manufacturing base left in this country, there is only the hope that the American consumer will lead the economy back on its feet, and as is already evident, we have nothing left with which to buy our country back into prosperity.
So, until those economic dominoes stop falling around us and we have emerged from our own collective debt to again spend our economy back into prosperity there will be no recovery in sight.
Of course, it is the system that let us down. The abject deregulation of the financial industry, the constant lies of "All is Well" that are fed to us via mass media, and the inability of the government to do anything other than make things worse, we might not see the end of the tunnel for a very, very long time.
Ironically, those countries which will be least effected by this world-wide game of dominoes are the ones we are getting closer and closer to war with right now. That is, other than the Gulf states bordering Saudi Arabia.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
That Sinking Sara Palin Feeling
It is without a doubt that we are in need of some real change after the troubling last eight years of the Bush & Co leadership, but it seems as though there is still a vast majority of American's who are utterly oblivious to the reality around them. Otherwise, how can you explain those ever-so-close poll results?
How is it that so many of us are so blind to the obvious scam that is, in essence, wrapped up in one person, Sarah Palin? And yet we are about to repeat the same tragic move that got us into this mess in the first place.
OK, so it's not entirely our fault because to some extent the system has been working against the common person for some time now, but there is still a huge amount of support for a ticket that lacks any form of credibility.
I wonder how many of us are really taking these elections seriously at all, and if they are how could they even think that the Republicans should be given another chance to run this country.
The answer is clearly that there are plenty of people who are taking these elections seriously and will sadly still vote for the McCain/Palin ticket.
From the card carrying members of the NRA, and big business, to naive women everywhere there is the very real possibility, (with DieBold's help) that once again Republicans will get another four year term at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
And even in the event that the Democrats do win, I fear there is the real possibility that at the very least the presidency will be stymied at every turn from global warming to international affairs. Too often I hear in the news that whomever takes the helm will have to endure a legacy which has already been established by the current administration.
So far, the rest of the world sympathizes with the American people and have endured our global stupidity because they feel that "We the People" will come to our senses and finally do the right thing by electing Barack/Biden. However, should this not be the case, then it will certainly be a different picture and there will be very little sympathy felt from anyone with the possible exception of our own pets.
To be truthful there hasn't been one thing I can recall that our country can be proud of the in the last eight years. Now, on the verge of utter economic catastrophe, and with the power to do something positive, will we ultimately decide to continue this epic tragedy? Well, I have that sinking feeling it's about to happen all over again.
How is it that so many of us are so blind to the obvious scam that is, in essence, wrapped up in one person, Sarah Palin? And yet we are about to repeat the same tragic move that got us into this mess in the first place.
OK, so it's not entirely our fault because to some extent the system has been working against the common person for some time now, but there is still a huge amount of support for a ticket that lacks any form of credibility.
I wonder how many of us are really taking these elections seriously at all, and if they are how could they even think that the Republicans should be given another chance to run this country.
The answer is clearly that there are plenty of people who are taking these elections seriously and will sadly still vote for the McCain/Palin ticket.
From the card carrying members of the NRA, and big business, to naive women everywhere there is the very real possibility, (with DieBold's help) that once again Republicans will get another four year term at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
And even in the event that the Democrats do win, I fear there is the real possibility that at the very least the presidency will be stymied at every turn from global warming to international affairs. Too often I hear in the news that whomever takes the helm will have to endure a legacy which has already been established by the current administration.
So far, the rest of the world sympathizes with the American people and have endured our global stupidity because they feel that "We the People" will come to our senses and finally do the right thing by electing Barack/Biden. However, should this not be the case, then it will certainly be a different picture and there will be very little sympathy felt from anyone with the possible exception of our own pets.
To be truthful there hasn't been one thing I can recall that our country can be proud of the in the last eight years. Now, on the verge of utter economic catastrophe, and with the power to do something positive, will we ultimately decide to continue this epic tragedy? Well, I have that sinking feeling it's about to happen all over again.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Comparisons of the Past
Several experts have recently said that our current economic crisis is unlike any other financial disaster in US history since the Great Depression, which began in 1930 and finally ended in 1954. A good comparison? Sorry, I don't buy it.
Now if my memory serves me correctly, the reason for the onset of the Great Depression can be attributed to just a few cliff notes. Everyday people were able to invest in the stock market due to the increasing use of telecommunications systems and mass urbanization. Investors were able to purchase on margin, often at a 10% rate. Our currency was pegged to an asset which could rise and fall in value - gold. There was literally no federal banking system in place, so people's deposits weren't insured.
When the stock market crashed, people went to withdraw their money from the local bank, and it just wasn't there and neither were their jobs when they got back. Of course, the environmental catastrophe called the Dust Bowl also played a factor. Unemployment at its peak hit around 30%.
While on the surface these two periods in American history can look similar, there are more reasons why they are very different.
Why are they so different? Today it's credit not margin that's killing us. After the roaring 20s, our government was sitting on a huge stockpile of wealth and enjoyed a substantial trade surplus (due to the export of oil and other natural resources). Now, our government is perhaps the largest holder of debit. Instead of being a net exporter, we are a nation that survives primarily from imported goods. Back then, there was no real system in place to regulate the financial industry. Now it's the industry itself that has spawned a legacy of greed through deregulation.
You might say things started looking bad for us around the time of Hurricane Katrina when so many people's lives were devastated never being able to recover. Unlike the Dust Bowl however, environmental disasters like Katrina are the result of a global climate crisis which shows no signs of recovery, not because of over-farming in soil depleted regions.
I guess I could go on, but suffice it to say we are looking at something much larger in scope than the problems faced by previous generations.
Great projects like the Hoover Dam, Mt. Rushmore and the Golden Gate Bridge were built as government projects that employed people and injected money into the the system by providing jobs. Currently, our government is seemingly committed to injecting money it doesn't have anyway (by simply printing, or borrowing more) into the capital market.
Now unlike then, it seems they have committed to bail out mortgage companies Fannie May and Freddie Mac as well as hundreds of banks and investment brokerage firms through the Fed and FDIC. According to this article, total debit could be in the range of 70+ trillion dollars. The FDIC has 54 billion in reserve. Social Security, at most, 11 trillion.
Try to picture this. You're going to the bank to take out all of your money in exchange for cash because credit doesn't look so good anymore. OK sounds good, there's no reason to panic. Now picture everyone doing this at the same time, and in effect shutting down the bank itself. Your bank. OK, still no problem because you'll manage to get some of it back seeing that your deposit is federally insured right? Wrong.
Looks like instead of building great projects and employing people putting wages back into our hands, our tax money is being used instead to bail out the very financial institutions that have played a role in creating this crisis.
Soon there won't be enough money left in our pockets to fuel the huge tanker ships that come from China which supply us with the meaningless trinkets we used to make ourselves.
This time it won't be like the last time and it shows every sign of being dramatically worse. So, until the entire nation wakes up and our government starts actually working for us, we as a nation will continue our perilous journey into uncharted territories.
Now if my memory serves me correctly, the reason for the onset of the Great Depression can be attributed to just a few cliff notes. Everyday people were able to invest in the stock market due to the increasing use of telecommunications systems and mass urbanization. Investors were able to purchase on margin, often at a 10% rate. Our currency was pegged to an asset which could rise and fall in value - gold. There was literally no federal banking system in place, so people's deposits weren't insured.
When the stock market crashed, people went to withdraw their money from the local bank, and it just wasn't there and neither were their jobs when they got back. Of course, the environmental catastrophe called the Dust Bowl also played a factor. Unemployment at its peak hit around 30%.
While on the surface these two periods in American history can look similar, there are more reasons why they are very different.
Why are they so different? Today it's credit not margin that's killing us. After the roaring 20s, our government was sitting on a huge stockpile of wealth and enjoyed a substantial trade surplus (due to the export of oil and other natural resources). Now, our government is perhaps the largest holder of debit. Instead of being a net exporter, we are a nation that survives primarily from imported goods. Back then, there was no real system in place to regulate the financial industry. Now it's the industry itself that has spawned a legacy of greed through deregulation.
You might say things started looking bad for us around the time of Hurricane Katrina when so many people's lives were devastated never being able to recover. Unlike the Dust Bowl however, environmental disasters like Katrina are the result of a global climate crisis which shows no signs of recovery, not because of over-farming in soil depleted regions.
I guess I could go on, but suffice it to say we are looking at something much larger in scope than the problems faced by previous generations.
Great projects like the Hoover Dam, Mt. Rushmore and the Golden Gate Bridge were built as government projects that employed people and injected money into the the system by providing jobs. Currently, our government is seemingly committed to injecting money it doesn't have anyway (by simply printing, or borrowing more) into the capital market.
Now unlike then, it seems they have committed to bail out mortgage companies Fannie May and Freddie Mac as well as hundreds of banks and investment brokerage firms through the Fed and FDIC. According to this article, total debit could be in the range of 70+ trillion dollars. The FDIC has 54 billion in reserve. Social Security, at most, 11 trillion.
Try to picture this. You're going to the bank to take out all of your money in exchange for cash because credit doesn't look so good anymore. OK sounds good, there's no reason to panic. Now picture everyone doing this at the same time, and in effect shutting down the bank itself. Your bank. OK, still no problem because you'll manage to get some of it back seeing that your deposit is federally insured right? Wrong.
Looks like instead of building great projects and employing people putting wages back into our hands, our tax money is being used instead to bail out the very financial institutions that have played a role in creating this crisis.
Soon there won't be enough money left in our pockets to fuel the huge tanker ships that come from China which supply us with the meaningless trinkets we used to make ourselves.
This time it won't be like the last time and it shows every sign of being dramatically worse. So, until the entire nation wakes up and our government starts actually working for us, we as a nation will continue our perilous journey into uncharted territories.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
I told you so?
You know that old saying, "I told you so," which is usually precluded by two or more people entering into an agreement, where one person has already predicted the correct outcome? Of course, we all have.
Well, this brings me to one night I vividly remember watching the news as a young child. After Reagan announced to the President of the Soviet Union, Mikael Gorbachev, "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" while standing in front of a half million German's at the Brandenburg Gate, I turned to dad and told him that I believed the end of the communist nation had begun and that the wall separating East and West Germany would come down soon. Dad just laughed at me in response and continued reading the newspaper. A few years later, and that was another I told you so moment.
Here is another one to think about. It's similar to an I told you so, but a little different. Probably similar (in exactly the opposite way) to the following riddle ...
An enthusiastic young archeologist emerges from an extensive dig and announces to the media that he has discovered the remains of Adam and Eve. How did he know this? We are all then supposed to guess, how he knew these bodies were actually Adam and Eve.
Except I don't think this is a riddle, but more of a sad reality really. We of course, shouldn't or couldn't say something like, I told you so at the end of this event because for us there really isn't an after to talk about. History will just continue, except that we won't be a part of it. Would it still be history?
The only way that part would work (for me anyway), is if it were said by a drunken Englishman, who by that point had no idea that he was actually the only person left alive but just didn't know it. Sad irony. Something the British are great for.
But dash it all, we are just about at the end here. May be not to the extreme of total extinction, but close enough. According to the genetic experts, there was a time in human history when we did face a near extinction of our species. At that time in our early years, there were only 2,000 women or so left living which created a huge "genetic bottleneck". Fortunately those that were left survived and reproduced.
It is supposed that possibly a great flood may have caused this, but whatever legends persist, I am sure Noah may have been thinking, "I told you so" which he tried to do often despite harsh ridicule before the rain came.
From my limited knowledge, I understand that God had become sick of us because, well we just weren't good people anymore and He decided that it was time to scrape the project and break the mold, almost.
Now here we go again. Whatever your beliefs may be, one thing is for sure, you have to be one deranged person not to think that this definitely looks like the end of the world is approaching. What that may look like when we try to picture it using our limited powers of imagination, I am sure will be nothing like the actual events that take place.
Because the world is so large, things may happen in some places before others, but eventually it will affect everyone to the point where life itself may not be viable.
Activists think there is still hope, but fail to realize the true scope of the problem and feel that if only they do their part, things may just improve. It won't. People are powerless this time as well.
Unfortunately, the dice has already been cast and all we can do is wait until it bounces off the backboard and stops. Where we are and what we are doing when this happens will just provide us with time enough to ponder the bitterly sad remark, I told you so ...
The problem is that we as humans are far to removed from life itself. Almost everything we create, or consume has a net negative balance for life.
Take cell phones for example. We cannot live without them. There is no changing that fact, and there is nothing that will change us to change that fact. Now cell phones are actually very bad for us. Given long enough use, we will almost certainly develop a brain tumor, or two. That is fine. Even though scientific research has concluded for years that putting a magnet to your brain can cause cancer, cell phone use keeps increasing. In fact, these magnets and magnetic fields, (not to mention the radiation) which is created only gets stronger as new models come out.
This strange behavior in humans to caste aside their personal health, just for the benefit of immediate gratification (which is what a cell phone really represents) reminds me of breast implants for some strange reason.
Anyway, not only is a cell phone bad for us, but its very bad for the earth itself. Now, try hard to imagine that we as humans cannot exist without food, and that almost all grown food sources, such as oranges, must be pollinated by a bee. There are actually very few things that don't need to be pollinated via insect assistance.
Someone should really compile a list though because pretty soon those foods will be all we will have left to eat. It will be a short list. Einstein once said that if the bees were gone, that people would only have a few years left. What's the correlation?
Bees hate cell phones, and especially cell phone towers. In fact they hate them so much, that these thriving colonies just evaporate leaving a scattered few behind and a dying Queen.
Used to be farmers would tend their own bee colonies, or use a local bee keeper. Now, bees are treated like a simple commodity going by freight to where ever they are needed at the time.
Like the trout which used to spawn in so many of America's west-coast tributaries, the bees are rapidly facing extinction here and across many parts of the world.
Of course, this is just one small example of the plight we all face. Some are just feeling things a little sooner. Someone from California I met today, said things are just crazy over there right now.
One thing that struck me was that the problems seemed to touch everyone in some way both in their personal lives and in things surrounding them. That is, she said, except those rich people seem to be doing just fine.
Well they may be somewhat insulated for now, but they also have to notice that it's 110 degrees in San Francisco and those beautiful bay-area fogs are gone to realize something is coming that may even be bigger than them.
Well, this brings me to one night I vividly remember watching the news as a young child. After Reagan announced to the President of the Soviet Union, Mikael Gorbachev, "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" while standing in front of a half million German's at the Brandenburg Gate, I turned to dad and told him that I believed the end of the communist nation had begun and that the wall separating East and West Germany would come down soon. Dad just laughed at me in response and continued reading the newspaper. A few years later, and that was another I told you so moment.
Here is another one to think about. It's similar to an I told you so, but a little different. Probably similar (in exactly the opposite way) to the following riddle ...
An enthusiastic young archeologist emerges from an extensive dig and announces to the media that he has discovered the remains of Adam and Eve. How did he know this? We are all then supposed to guess, how he knew these bodies were actually Adam and Eve.
Except I don't think this is a riddle, but more of a sad reality really. We of course, shouldn't or couldn't say something like, I told you so at the end of this event because for us there really isn't an after to talk about. History will just continue, except that we won't be a part of it. Would it still be history?
The only way that part would work (for me anyway), is if it were said by a drunken Englishman, who by that point had no idea that he was actually the only person left alive but just didn't know it. Sad irony. Something the British are great for.
But dash it all, we are just about at the end here. May be not to the extreme of total extinction, but close enough. According to the genetic experts, there was a time in human history when we did face a near extinction of our species. At that time in our early years, there were only 2,000 women or so left living which created a huge "genetic bottleneck". Fortunately those that were left survived and reproduced.
It is supposed that possibly a great flood may have caused this, but whatever legends persist, I am sure Noah may have been thinking, "I told you so" which he tried to do often despite harsh ridicule before the rain came.
From my limited knowledge, I understand that God had become sick of us because, well we just weren't good people anymore and He decided that it was time to scrape the project and break the mold, almost.
Now here we go again. Whatever your beliefs may be, one thing is for sure, you have to be one deranged person not to think that this definitely looks like the end of the world is approaching. What that may look like when we try to picture it using our limited powers of imagination, I am sure will be nothing like the actual events that take place.
Because the world is so large, things may happen in some places before others, but eventually it will affect everyone to the point where life itself may not be viable.
Activists think there is still hope, but fail to realize the true scope of the problem and feel that if only they do their part, things may just improve. It won't. People are powerless this time as well.
Unfortunately, the dice has already been cast and all we can do is wait until it bounces off the backboard and stops. Where we are and what we are doing when this happens will just provide us with time enough to ponder the bitterly sad remark, I told you so ...
The problem is that we as humans are far to removed from life itself. Almost everything we create, or consume has a net negative balance for life.
Take cell phones for example. We cannot live without them. There is no changing that fact, and there is nothing that will change us to change that fact. Now cell phones are actually very bad for us. Given long enough use, we will almost certainly develop a brain tumor, or two. That is fine. Even though scientific research has concluded for years that putting a magnet to your brain can cause cancer, cell phone use keeps increasing. In fact, these magnets and magnetic fields, (not to mention the radiation) which is created only gets stronger as new models come out.
This strange behavior in humans to caste aside their personal health, just for the benefit of immediate gratification (which is what a cell phone really represents) reminds me of breast implants for some strange reason.
Anyway, not only is a cell phone bad for us, but its very bad for the earth itself. Now, try hard to imagine that we as humans cannot exist without food, and that almost all grown food sources, such as oranges, must be pollinated by a bee. There are actually very few things that don't need to be pollinated via insect assistance.
Someone should really compile a list though because pretty soon those foods will be all we will have left to eat. It will be a short list. Einstein once said that if the bees were gone, that people would only have a few years left. What's the correlation?
Bees hate cell phones, and especially cell phone towers. In fact they hate them so much, that these thriving colonies just evaporate leaving a scattered few behind and a dying Queen.
Used to be farmers would tend their own bee colonies, or use a local bee keeper. Now, bees are treated like a simple commodity going by freight to where ever they are needed at the time.
Like the trout which used to spawn in so many of America's west-coast tributaries, the bees are rapidly facing extinction here and across many parts of the world.
Of course, this is just one small example of the plight we all face. Some are just feeling things a little sooner. Someone from California I met today, said things are just crazy over there right now.
One thing that struck me was that the problems seemed to touch everyone in some way both in their personal lives and in things surrounding them. That is, she said, except those rich people seem to be doing just fine.
Well they may be somewhat insulated for now, but they also have to notice that it's 110 degrees in San Francisco and those beautiful bay-area fogs are gone to realize something is coming that may even be bigger than them.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
A Brief Account of Human History
As the noted author Chuck Palahniuk once noted, "On a long enough time-line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero." Then when we consider the entire span of human existence, how can we summarize our collective history?
How about, "We came, we saw, we conquered"? Hardly.
May be we can take a few notes from one of the most important movies of 2007, Semi-Pro, when the legendary film-star Will Ferrell declares, "In the annals of human history, they will note three things, the invention of fire, submarines, and the Mega-Bowl!" Not quite.
On a long enough time-lime, I would venture to say that our fate is beginning to take an ominous path towards self destruction and the majority of us are only in the first stage of AA's 12 step process of recovery, denial.
So then let's say we continue on with the status quo, and conclude that humans emerged from the trees, didn't like what they saw and decided to change things. Humans changed things so much that soon there were no more trees left, and then the humans died.
Among humans chief accomplishments were various inventions, almost complete eradication of all other living creatures on Earth, and terra-forming the planet while removing its most valuable resources for profit.
They were not successful enough to emerge from their infancy to colonize the stars, although exploration of space was attempted on a basic level.
Possibly worthy of amending the Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy? I think the current edition might be even shorter.
How about, "We came, we saw, we conquered"? Hardly.
May be we can take a few notes from one of the most important movies of 2007, Semi-Pro, when the legendary film-star Will Ferrell declares, "In the annals of human history, they will note three things, the invention of fire, submarines, and the Mega-Bowl!" Not quite.
On a long enough time-lime, I would venture to say that our fate is beginning to take an ominous path towards self destruction and the majority of us are only in the first stage of AA's 12 step process of recovery, denial.
So then let's say we continue on with the status quo, and conclude that humans emerged from the trees, didn't like what they saw and decided to change things. Humans changed things so much that soon there were no more trees left, and then the humans died.
Among humans chief accomplishments were various inventions, almost complete eradication of all other living creatures on Earth, and terra-forming the planet while removing its most valuable resources for profit.
They were not successful enough to emerge from their infancy to colonize the stars, although exploration of space was attempted on a basic level.
Possibly worthy of amending the Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy? I think the current edition might be even shorter.
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